Natasha Eden ABR® Calgary & Chestermere REALTOR® : Calgary & Chestermere Real Estate Services : Archived blog posts for : 2009

MLS® Home Sales Forecast Revised

Posted on November 19, 2009 by Natasha Eden

OTTAWA – November 16, 2009 – Monthly MLS® home sales activity continues to run strong, with new monthly records set in July, September, and October. This has prompted The Canadian Real Estate Association to revise its MLS® home sales forecast for 2009 and 2010.

CREA now forecasts national activity will reach 460,200 units in 2009, up 6.6 per cent from last year. CREA’s previous forecast issued in August had annual sales this year about even with 2008 levels. The new sales forecast for 2009 puts activity about on par with annual activity in 2004, but below levels reported for the years 2005 through 2007.

British Columbia and Ontario are still forecast to post annual increases in activity this year, but the forecast has been lifted as a result of recent record level activity in both provinces. In addition, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Prince Edward Island are also now forecast to post an annual increase in activity in 2009. Forecast declines in annual activity have been trimmed for Manitoba and Nova Scotia, and are little changed for New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador.

National MLS® home sales activity is forecast to rise seven per cent to 492,300 units in 2010. This is a slightly larger rise in activity than previously forecast. This would make 2010 the second highest year on record for sales, putting activity below the peak reached in 2007, and slightly above the 2005 and 2006 figures. New annual records are forecast for Manitoba and Quebec in 2010.

The forecast increase in activity for 2010 reflects significant weakness in activity recorded in the first quarter of 2009. Monthly activity in 2010 is expected to trend downward from recent heights, but the sharp drop inactivity recorded in the in the first quarter of 2009 is not expected to repeat in 2010.

New listings began declining in the third quarter of 2008, as many sellers took their home off the market pending an improvement in housing market conditions. CREA’s previous forecast suggested that average price increases in the second half of 2009 would likely result in mild a rebound in listings. In the third quarter of 2009, the number of new listings did post the first quarterly increase in more than a year, which coincided with the return of strong average price increases. New residential listings are expected to continue trending upward.

The national MLS® average home price is forecast to climb 4.2 per cent in 2009, reaching a record $317,900. This is an upward revision from the 1.5 per cent gain in CREA’s previous forecast, and reflects the high degree to which the national average price was skewed downward last year by a significant decline in activity in Canada’s priciest markets, and then upward by the rebound in activity.

Alberta remains the only province with a forecast decline in average price in 2009 (-3.0 per cent).

Average prices are forecast to rise in all other provinces, with gains ranging from a low of 1.5 per cent in British Columbia to 13.1 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Average prices are forecast to climb a further 4.7 per cent in 2010. Much of the annual increase reflects weakness in the average price in first quarter of 2009, which is not expected to repeat in 2010. Average sale prices are forecast to rise in every province in 2010.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average price is forecast to climb 2.9 per cent in 2009, with a further 4.0 per cent rise in 2010. CREA previously forecast that the weighted national average price for MLS® homes sales would hold steady from 2009 to 2010.

“Pent-up demand built in late 2008 and early 2009, as many buyers moved to the sidelines pending an improved economic outlook,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “With the economic outlook having improved since then, the release of that pent-up demand will boost activity over the rest of the year and in 2010.”

“Significant weakness in activity and average prices seen in late 2008 and earlier this year is not expected to repeat in 2010, so 2010 will look a lot better by comparison,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “The raised outlook for MLS® sales activity in 2010 still puts annual activity below the pre-recession peak recorded for 2007.”

For the complete release:

http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/mlsForecast_nov09.pdf

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Strong numbers in Calgary Housing Sales

Posted on November 17, 2009 by Natasha EDEN

Posted in Calgary Real Estate, Market Trends

Strong numbers in Calgary boost Oct. MLS sales to record highs in Canada

Calgary Herald - Nov 17, 2009

CALGARY - MLS sales activity in October reached record levels in Canada for the month, buoyed by strong residential real estate markets in Western Canada, particularly Vancouver, Victoria and Calgary.

The numbers last month compared with a year ago are simply staggering. Greater Vancouver led the country with a whopping 170.8 per cent hike in MLS sales, followed by Victoria at 135 per cent, Toronto at 64.2 per cent and Calgary at 55.9 per cent.

"A dramatic rebound in sales activity compared to the recent low rate at the beginning of the year," said Gregory Klump, chief economist for the Canadian Real Estate Association, of the Calgary real estate market.

"Trendwise, we're still continuing to see new listings down from their peak reached in early 2008. So the market's tightened up considerably. In fact, using sales to new listings as a gauge for market balance, Calgary appears to be in a seller's market territory."

In October, Calgary had 2,265 MLS sales for an average sale price of $399,679, which includes single-family homes and condos. The price is up 2.9 per cent from a year ago. Total dollar volume for transactions in the month was just under $905.3 million for a 60.3 per cent hike from a year ago. And new listings were down by 21.9 per cent to 3,343.

In Alberta, sales for October increased by 29.6 per cent from last year to 4,978 units and the average sale price jumped by 2.6 per cent to $351,091.

Total dollar volume of all transactions rose by 33 per cent to over $1.7 billion while new listings decreased by 24.2 per cent to 7,643 units.

At the national level, total unit sales were up 41.5 per cent across the country to 42,288 for an average sale price of $341,079, up 20.7 per cent from a year ago. In Canada, total dollar volume of all transactions increased by 70.8 per cent to just over $14.4 billion. New listings dropped by 15.2 per cent to 63,285.

Klump said he expects in Calgary as "headline price increases persist, as I expect they will over the rest of the year and into 2010, that that will draw a lot of the sellers who moved to the sidelines back to the market as well, and that will take some of the pricing pressure off."

With the steep decline in new listings since the beginning of 2008, "supply is having trouble keeping up with demand," he said.

Bonnie Wegerich, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said affordability due to low interest rates and a variety of choice have fuelled the Calgary market recently.

The torrid pace of the Calgary residential real estate market does not appear to be subsiding this month.

According to the website of Mike Fotiou, of First Place Realty, there have been 528 single-family home sales so far in November until Nov. 15 for an average sale price of $473,476, while for the same period there have been 225 condo sales for an average sale price of $298,761.

For the whole month of November in 2008, there were 670 single-family home sales with an average price of $435,471. There were also 284 condo sales for an average price of $285,820.

In October across Canada, low interest rates and upbeat consumer confidence continued to release the pent-up demand that built late last year and earlier this year, said Dale Ripplinger, CREA president.

"The release of that pent-up demand has boosted national sales activity to new heights and is drawing down inventories," he said.

Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, said the "rapid-fire rebound" in Canadian housing is showing no sign of letting up. "While that may be causing some sweaty palms among bubble-phobes, the quick turn is a vivid illustration that monetary policy still works in this country," he said.

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Prices Across The Country

Market Average/Sale Price/Year-Over-Year Change

Toronto $423,507 20.0%

Greater Vancouver $638,948 14.8%

Ottawa $320,561 14.1%

Winnipeg $210,618 10.6%

Montreal $284,024 10.4%

Regina $246,300 5.4%

Halifax-Dartmouth $235,465 4.8%

Calgary $399,679 2.9%

Victoria $481,500 2.6%

Edmonton $318,969 0.4%

Saskatoon $274,759 -3.7%

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Calgary October MLS Sales

Category/October 2009/Year-Over-Year Change

Dollar volume $905.272 million 60.3%

Unit sales 2,265 55.9%

Average price $399,679 2.9%

New listings 3,343 -21.9%

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Housing starts increase in Calgary and across Canada

Posted on November 15, 2009 by Natasha EDEN

Posted in Calgary Properties, Market Trends, Real Estate

Article by Calgary Real Estate News Staff

According to preliminary figures released this week by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), total housing starts in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) totaled 732 units in October 2009, up from 599 units in the previous year. To the end of October, total housing starts declined from 10,460 units in 2008 to 4,829 in 2009.

Single-detached builders started work on 502 homes in October 2009, an increase of 38 per cent from the 365 units started in 2008. This represents the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year increases in single starts.

“Builders continued to increase starts in response to declining inventory levels and higher new home sales,” said Richard Cho, CMHC’s senior market analyst for Calgary.

“The recent up-tick in construction activity is expected to continue in the months ahead,” noted Cho.

To the end of October, there have been 3,612 single-detached units started, down four per cent from the previous year.

“Although new construction is down year-to-date, the recent rise in activity is bringing production closer to 2008 levels,” he added.

In October, there were 230 multi-family units that broke ground, down two per cent from a year earlier.

“The year-over-year decline in multi-family starts, which consists of semi-detached, row and apartment units, is less pronounced since we are no longer comparing to the elevated construction levels earlier in 2008,” said Cho.

After the first 10 months of the year, there have been 1,217 multi-family units started, down 82 per cent from 2008. “Multi-family construction is expected to remain low in the coming months as builders, especially those in the apartment segment, are still facing heightened inventory levels,” he noted.

Provincially, housing starts in Alberta’s seven largest centres totalled 2,179 units in October, up 30 per cent from October 2008. For census agglomeration areas, Medicine Hat and Red Deer reported a year-over-year increase in total housing starts.

Nationally, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts reached 157,300 units in October. This is an increase from 149,300 units started in September, according to CMHC.

“The improvement in housing starts in October is attributable to improvement in the multiple starts segment,” said Bob Dugan, chief economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Despite a small decline in single home starts in October, the level of single home starts remains at its second highest level since October 2008.”The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 5.2 per cent to 139,900 units in October. Urban multiple starts climbed 13.8 per cent to 72,600 units, while urban single starts declined by 2.7 per cent to 67,300 units in October.

October’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 15 per cent in British Columbia, by 14.8 per cent in Ontario, by 6.5 per cent in the Prairies and by 1.2 per cent in the Atlantic. The rate of urban starts decreased by 11.6 per cent in Quebec.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,400 units in October.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

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MLS® Home Sales Forecast Revised

Posted on November 19, 2009 by Natasha Eden

Posted in Market Update, Real Estate

Alberta remains the only province with a forecast decline in average price in 2009 (-3.0 per cent).

Average prices are forecast to rise in all other provinces, with gains ranging from a low of 1.5 per cent in British Columbia to 13.1 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.

For the complete release:

http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/mlsForecast_nov09.pdf

Read

Strong numbers in Calgary Housing Sales

Posted on November 17, 2009 by Natasha EDEN

Posted in Calgary Real Estate, Market Trends

Strong numbers in Calgary boost Oct. MLS sales to record highs in Canada

Calgary Herald - Nov 17, 2009

In Alberta, sales for October increased by 29.6 per cent from last year to 4,978 units and the average sale price jumped by 2.6 per cent to $351,091.

Total dollar volume of all transactions rose by 33 per cent to over $1.7 billion while new listings decreased by 24.2 per cent to 7,643 units.

With the steep decline in new listings since the beginning of 2008, "supply is having trouble keeping up with demand," he said.

Bonnie Wegerich, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said affordability due to low interest rates and a variety of choice have fuelled the Calgary market recently.

The torrid pace of the Calgary residential real estate market does not appear to be subsiding this month.

For the whole month of November in 2008, there were 670 single-family home sales with an average price of $435,471. There were also 284 condo sales for an average price of $285,820.

"The release of that pent-up demand has boosted national sales activity to new heights and is drawing down inventories," he said.

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Prices Across The Country

Market Average/Sale Price/Year-Over-Year Change

Toronto $423,507 20.0%

Greater Vancouver $638,948 14.8%

Ottawa $320,561 14.1%

Winnipeg $210,618 10.6%

Montreal $284,024 10.4%

Regina $246,300 5.4%

Halifax-Dartmouth $235,465 4.8%

Calgary $399,679 2.9%

Victoria $481,500 2.6%

Edmonton $318,969 0.4%

Saskatoon $274,759 -3.7%

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Calgary October MLS Sales

Category/October 2009/Year-Over-Year Change

Dollar volume $905.272 million 60.3%

Unit sales 2,265 55.9%

Average price $399,679 2.9%

New listings 3,343 -21.9%

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Housing starts increase in Calgary and across Canada

Posted on November 15, 2009 by Natasha EDEN

Posted in Calgary Properties, Market Trends, Real Estate

Article by Calgary Real Estate News Staff

“Builders continued to increase starts in response to declining inventory levels and higher new home sales,” said Richard Cho, CMHC’s senior market analyst for Calgary.

“The recent up-tick in construction activity is expected to continue in the months ahead,” noted Cho.

To the end of October, there have been 3,612 single-detached units started, down four per cent from the previous year.

“Although new construction is down year-to-date, the recent rise in activity is bringing production closer to 2008 levels,” he added.

In October, there were 230 multi-family units that broke ground, down two per cent from a year earlier.

Nationally, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts reached 157,300 units in October. This is an increase from 149,300 units started in September, according to CMHC.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,400 units in October.

Read