High inventory, cooling sales put pressure on house prices

Posted on September 8, 2010 by Natasha EDEN

Posted in Calgary home sales, Calgary Housing Market, Calgary Housing Stats, Calgary Housing Trend, Calgary Real Estate, Market Trends, Market Update, Whitehorn

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald August 25, 2010

A high inventory of homes for sale combined with a softening demand from potential homebuyers is starting to put downward pressure on Calgary MLS prices.

Preliminary and unofficial data for August month-to-date indicates prices are dropping from levels of the past few months in both the single-family and condominium market.

"We have almost the same number of buyers that we had in December but we have so many more listings," said Gary MacLean, a realtor with Re/Max Real Estate Central. "It's like having a Safeway that got two times as big but only has the same number of customers coming in the door and in order to get rid of the inventory they have to reduce the prices.

"It's a supply and demand issue. There's an oversupply of houses not only here but all across Canada and the number of buyers are decreasing."

For example, at the end of December one of every 1.6 houses listed for sale were selling. In July, that ratio jumped to one for every 6.6 listings. The month-end inventory of properties for sale in Calgary metro at the end of December was 3,258. It was 7,982 at the end of July.

MacLean said the inventory is starting to shrink but it's not as a result of increasing sales. Many people have simply taken their homes off the market.

According to preliminary, unofficial data on the website of realtor Mike Fotiou, of First Place Realty, there have been 661 single-family home MLS sales in Calgary for an average price of $441,469 month-to-date until Tuesday.

In July for the entire month, there were 915 sales for an average of $464,655 and in August 2009 there were 1,277 sales for an average of $454,130.

The average MLS sale price peaked this year in May at $483,240.

The condominium market is showing a similar story with sales so far this month at 271 for an average price of $283,485. In July, there were 396 condo transactions averaging $291,168 and in August 2009 there were 632 sales for an average price of $283,330.

The average MLS sale price for a condo peaked this year in May as well at $304,662.

Diane Scott, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, said supply and demand is playing a role on current average prices but there's also the factor of luxury home sales.

"Homes sold over $1 million are down in numbers from last year for the same period," she said. "June to August last year we had 98 sales over $1 million. This year we've had 87 ... That will drive the average price down as well for sure."

On Wednesday, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed Calgary was lagging behind other major Canadian centres in the rate of change for home prices.

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries and all dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index.

The report said in June Calgary prices rose by 0.2 per cent on a monthly basis behind Ottawa (2.7 per cent), Toronto (2.4 per cent), Montreal (1.4 per cent), Halifax (1.3 per cent) and Vancouver (0.8 per cent). The national average was 1.5 per cent, the 14th consecutive month of increases.

On a year-over-year basis, the national average was 13.6 per cent growth led by Vancouver at 16.3 per cent and followed by Toronto (16.2 per cent), Ottawa (12.0 per cent), Montreal (8.7 per cent), Calgary (8.3 per cent) and Halifax (7.1 per cent).

mtoneguzzi@theherald.canwest.com

Story from © Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

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Is Now The Time To Lock In Your Mortgage?

Posted on September 8, 2010 by Natasha EDEN

Posted in Calgary Real Estate, Market Trends, Market Update, Mortgage, Mortgage Rates, Mortgages, Real Estate, Whitehorn

Now might just be the best time to lock into a fixed-rate mortgage, especially for those homeowners on a tight budget, according to an expert broker.

The Bank of Canada hiked its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points Wednesday, and variable mortgage rate products offered through major lenders are expected to rise in step.

Despite Wednesday’s increase, variable rates -- hovering between 2.05% and 2.25% these days -- still offer savings compared to fixed-rate plans in the near term.

But there is an argument for locking into a fixed rate sooner rather than later, said Gary Siegle, a Calgary-based regional manager at Invis.

The rate for the popular five-year fixed mortgage has recently dropped to a commonly available 3.89% and is as low as 3.6% in some cases.

We haven’t seen rates this low in recent memory, Siegle said.

“There are lots of people out there who are saying: Why would you overlook the fact that we haven’t seen five-year rates this low in a long, long time?

“Why would you not take advantage of historic low interest rates?”

Unfortunately, the answer isn’t clear-cut, Siegle said.

Some people are choosing to overlook low fixed rates because the variable options are still cheaper and may be for some time.

However, mortgage holders do need to consider that variable rates do change eventually.

“And the direction everyone is predicting that they’ll go is up. It’s a question of how much and when,” Siegle said.

Floating rates have historically been the cheaper option over the entire life of a mortgage but not everyone can stomach the often dramatic swings in monthly expenses.

“It’s a question also of psyche,” Siegle said.

People who are generally nervous or who are on a tight budget might be better off locking in now, he said.

“Even though they are giving up that 1.25%, they are gaining a lot of peace of mind.”

Homeowners considering the switch to a fixed plan could look into whether there is penalty for switching mid-term, Siegle said.

Either way, both variable and fixed-rate mortgage holders can take advantage of current borrowing prices by paying down as much of the principal amount as quickly as possible. That way, as rates go up, total debt burden will be lowered come renewal time.

Whereas the central bank influences variable rates, the bond market influences fixed-rate mortgages.

The slower-than-expected economy has fuelled investor interest in the bond rally, pushing yields down and allowing banks to offer attractive fixed-rate products.

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One in five Calgary companies plan on hiring: Economists

Posted on September 8, 2010 by Natasha EDEN

Posted in Calgary Economic Recovery, Calgary Relocation

Calgary job seekers could close the year on a happier note, with one in five Calgary companies planning to hire within the next three months, a sign the city's economy is stabilizing after a rocky patch, economists say.

"It's all very positive news," said Randy Upright, CEO of Manpower's Alberta region, adding only four per cent of employers expect to cut back their labour force between October and December.

He added that the numbers show a "more conservative kind of survey" than those seen during boom times.

As well, the number looking to add employees is double what it was in the same period last year, when only 11 per cent were in that position.

And it's an eight percentage point increase over July to September when 15 per cent planned to hire.

With 71 per cent anticipating the status quo until the end of the year, "there's a continuing sense of stability overall," said Upright. "That's what we're really happy about."

In 2009, hiring intentions in Calgary sank to their lowest levels in 15 years.

Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial, speaking generally about Calgary's economy, said stable is good after a couple years of volatility.

"The phrase I've been using lately is sunny with a chance of showers," he said to describe the situation in the city.

With some uncertainty still in the air, Hirsch said employers aren't rushing to add staff they may have to lay off should things take a turn.

Citing fluctuating oil prices and the low price of natural gas, "it's enough to rattle people," he said.

Manpower Canada's employment outlook survey released today, which includes 1,900 employers across the country, found 23 per cent in Calgary are looking to hire, compared with 21 per cent nationally. Across Canada, the number planning to cut jobs was seven per cent, with both figures are better than during the same period last year.

Manpower said it's the strongest national outlook in almost two years.

A Robert Half International employment report, which canvassed more than 1,000 executives in Canada about their hiring at the professional level, found a net 10 per cent plan to add jobs, a two percentage point increase over the previous three months.

Calgary has seen its unemployment rate start to decline, hitting 6.9 per cent in July, down from 7.5 per cent in June.

Hirsch said it looks worse than it is because Calgarians have been used to a rate of about three per cent.

However, while the province added 9,000 jobs in July, on top of 5,700 added in June, all those were attributed to the creation of part-time positions and in both months there was a decrease in full-time jobs.

In July, Canada added 129,700 part-time jobs but lost 139,000 full-time positions.

According to the Manpower Canada survey, the most optimism for job creation was seen in the mining and manufacturing-durable goods sectors, the best in a decade.

On Friday, the United States reported job gains of 67,000 in the private sector, which was better than expected, with the economy losing 54,000 jobs overall -- better than the 120,000 predicted.

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Calgary Housing Sales Tumble - August house sales drop nearly one-third

Posted on September 8, 2010 by Natasha EDEN

Posted in , Calgary home market, Calgary home sales, Calgary Housing Market, Calgary Housing Stats, Calgary Housing Trend, Calgary Properties, Calgary Real Estate, Calgary Real Estate Market, Calgary Real Estate Stats, Whitehorn

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald September 2, 2010

An increase in active listings, combined with a cooling in housing demand, has started to push prices down in Calgary's residential real estate market.

Data released Wednesday by the Calgary Real Estate Board show single-family home sales fell by just over 32 per cent in August compared with a year ago while condominium transactions plunged by more than 42 per cent.

And the average MLS sale price in both markets dropped from what they were in July.

"If (buyers) don't have to buy they're just not doing it right now. There's just too much unrest," said CREB president Diane Scott.

"We know the traffic in the open houses has picked up in the last two weeks. We've been monitoring it very closely and the traffic is there, but the buyers are just a little leery."

Scott attributes that cautious sentiment to negative economic news and reports continuing to come before the public which create plenty of uncertainty in the marketplace.

"It's the economic situation that we happen to find ourselves in and the negative reports that keep popping up and buyers are kind of standing back, thinking it's going to go down lower," she added.

According to CREB, there were 867 single-family home sales in the city in August, down from August 2009's 1,277 sales and slightly down from the 915 sales recorded the previous month.

The average MLS sale price for a single-family home fell to $445,617, down 4.1 per cent from July and also off 1.9 per cent from a year ago. The year-over-year decline was the first month since July 2009 in which single-family home prices were lower than the previous year.

In the condominium market, sales dropped from last year as 364 properties were sold in Calgary for an average price of $286,384. The average price decreased by 1.6 per cent from July, but was up 1.1 per cent from August 2009.

"The rise in mortgage rates, more prudent lending practices and weaker net migration has contributed to the decline in sales," said Richard Cho, senior market analyst for Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. "In addition, the pent-up demand that helped fuel sales activity earlier in the year has also eased.

"In the last several months we have seen an uptick in the number of homes being listed on the market, providing consumers more choice and time. This, combined with the moderation in sales, has moved the market into buyers' conditions, softening price growth."

The month-end inventory of single-family homes for sale was 5,046 at the end of August, up from 3,296 in August 2009.

The month-end inventory of listings in the condo market was 2,255 in August, increasing from 1,479 last year.

Scott said the elevated level of listings plus the slowdown in sales is bound to have an impact on the average sale price.

The monthly peak for MLS sale prices was in May this year with single-family homes selling for an average of $483,240 and condos selling for $304,662.

"It's a downward type of trend. It's certainly not drastic but it is downward that I think we're going to see probably for the rest of the year," said Scott. "I think we'll have a little bit more activity as for the number of sales in September. Typical. It's seasonal and I think we'll see that in September."

In the MLS market of towns outside Calgary, sales dropped by just over 23 per cent to 312 from 406 a year ago and the average sale price increased by 0.3 per cent to $355,238 from $354,175.

The country residential market, which includes acreages, saw sales decrease by just under 17 per cent to 50 from 60 in August 2009 while the average sale price dropped by just over two per cent to $747,580.

mtoneguzzi@theherald.canwest.com

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Calgary Home Sales Continue To Slide

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Calgary Sales Wane - Town and Country Sales Hold Steady

Posted on September 2, 2010 by Natasha EDEN

Posted in Calgary home sales, Calgary Housing Market, Calgary Housing Stats, Calgary Housing Trend, Calgary Properties, Calgary Real Estate, Calgary Real Estate Market, Calgary Real Estate Stats, Market Trends, Market Update, Real Estate

Calgary Market Update for September 1, 2010

- courtesy of the Calgary Real Estate Board

Home sales in the city of Calgary continued to trend lower in the month of August, according to figures released today by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®).

The number of single family homes sold in August 2010 in the city of Calgary was down 32 per cent from the same time a year ago, and condominium sales saw a decrease of 42 per cent from the same time a year ago.

August 2010 saw 867 single family homes sold in the city of Calgary. This is a decrease of 5 per cent

from 915 sales in July 2010. In August 2009, single family home sales totalled 1,277. The number of

condominium sales for the month of August 2010 was 364. This was a decrease of 8 per cent from the 396 condominium transactions recorded in July 2010.

In August 2009, condominium sales were 632. “Calgary’s housing market has been undergoing a

measured correction over the past 4 to 5 months. Sales are trending lower as a result of a increase in first time home buyers entering the market and a decline in pent up demand following a strong post-recession recovery,” says Diane Scott, president of CREB®.

“There has been much talk recently about the potential for a housing bubble in Canada--but the economic fundamentals at play make this scenario unlikely for Calgary. What we are seeing is an adjustment to higher levels of inventory and a shift to a buyer’s market.”

“A slower than anticipated pace of mortgage rate hikes and continued improvements in employment are more likely to bring stability rather than volatility into Calgary’s housing market as we move into 2011, ” adds Scott.

The average price of a single family home in the city of Calgary in August 2010 was $445,617, showing a 4 per cent decrease from July 2010, when the average price was $464,655, and a decrease of 2 per cent from August 2009, when the average price was $454,130.

The average price of a condominium in the city of Calgary in August 2010 was $286,384, showing a 2 per cent decrease from July 2010, when the average price was $291,168 and a 1 per cent increase over last year, when the average price was $283,330. Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas.

“We expect a period of correction will continue into the fall of this year. Prices may sag in the short-term and level off as we move into 2011,” says Scott. “Homebuyers and sellers should keep in mind that market trends are unique even throughout the wider Calgary region.

A case in point is the relative strength of Calgary’s town and country market, where sales have remained at 2009 levels. Homebuyers and sellers should speak to a REALTOR® to better understand the opportunities in our current market,” says Scott.

The median price of a single family home in the city of Calgary for August 2010 was $395,000, showing a 1 per cent decrease from July 2010 and August 2009, when the median price was $400,000. The median price of a condominium in August 2010 was $260,000, showing a 3 per cent decrease from July 2010, when the median price was $268,000, and no change from

August 2009, when it was the same – $260,000.

All city of Calgary MLS® statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary’s city limits. The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time. During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the

median price.

Single family listings in the city of Calgary added for the month of August 2010 totalled 1,960, an increase of less than 1 per cent from July 2010 when 1,942 new listings were added, and showing an increase of 3 per cent from August 2009, when 1,910 new listings came to the market.

Condominium new listings in the city of Calgary added for August 2010 were 808, down 9 per cent

from July 2010, when the MLS® saw 890 condo listings coming to the market. This is a decrease of 3 per cent from August 2009, when new condominium listings added were 832.

“Total month end inventory for the wider Calgary region is down marginally when compared to July—a trend we expect will continue in the coming months.

New listings are also likely to recede in the coming months in response to slowing sales,” adds Scott.

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