CNN has an excellent article on rumours that we may be in for a double dip recession.  Apparently, the stats indicate otherwise.
 
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Europe's debt crisis. Companies still not hiring. The Gulf oil spill. These are uncertain times to say the least. But while you might think economists would be running for the hills and looking ahead to a so-called "double dip recession," that's not necessarily the case.
 
In fact, some economists think a double dip is even less likely than it was earlier this year.
 
David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor's, said that even though he thinks slower U.S. growth is practically a sure thing, the odds of a double-dip actually have shrunk to 20%, from 25% earlier this year.
 
Same goes for Derek Hoffman, founder and editor of The Wall Street Cheat Sheet, who also puts the odds of a double dip at 20%, when just a few months earlier he saw them at 50-50.
 
The term "double dip" refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery that then slides back into a second recession. It can be measured by fluctuations in gross domestic product, or GDP -- one of the broadest measures of economic activity.
 
Hoffman said he changed his mind about a potential double dip after major U.S. companies reported solid profit growth in the first quarter of 2010 and European leaders approved a $1 trillion bailout package to deal with the region's debt crisis.
 
Granted, the picture isn't all rosy. Unemployment is still high at 9.7%. But Wyss points out that consumers are spending again. Plus, the average person on main street doesn't seem as worried about getting laid off as they were a year ago, he said.
 
Wyss's comments echo those of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who on Monday told reporters that he expects a continued economic recovery, in part because of revived consumer spending. Bernanke also said the recovery would be slow -- it "won't feel terrific," he said.
 
Bernanke dodged a question about whether he fears a double-dip recession, saying "nobody knows with any certainty."
 
 
To be sure, any chance of a double dip is nothing to shrug off.
 
Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, likes to call himself an optimist, but said he can't deny that when he talks to clients, he's blunt about the risk of a double dip. He calculates the chances of one happening at about 30%, whereas a few months ago, he would have said it was as low as 15%.
 

"We experienced the worst crisis in a generation and now there are major problems in Europe and with the oil spill. How optimistic can you expect an optimist to be?" he said.

The winding down of government stimulus programs and inventory rebuilding, which together accounted for much of the recovery, are the major factors behind a slowdown, Vitner said.
Add in geopolitical unrest and volatile global markets, and businesses, consumers and lawmakers alike will be more hesitant to make investments that could support economic growth.
 

"One of the things to remember is conditions do not have to be perfect for the economy to grow," Vitner said. "But there's a limit to how much bad news this economy can take."

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CNN has an excellent article on rumours that we may be in for a double dip recession.  Apparently, the stats indicate otherwise.
 
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Europe's debt crisis. Companies still not hiring. The Gulf oil spill. These are uncertain times to say the least. But while you might think economists would be running for the hills and looking ahead to a so-called "double dip recession," that's not necessarily the case.
 
In fact, some economists think a double dip is even less likely than it was earlier this year.
 
David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor's, said that even though he thinks slower U.S. growth is practically a sure thing, the odds of a double-dip actually have shrunk to 20%, from 25% earlier this year.
 
Same goes for Derek Hoffman, founder and editor of The Wall Street Cheat Sheet, who also puts the odds of a double dip at 20%, when just a few months earlier he saw them at 50-50.
 
The term "double dip" refers to a recession followed by a short-lived recovery that then slides back into a second recession. It can be measured by fluctuations in gross domestic product, or GDP -- one of the broadest measures of economic activity.
 
Hoffman said he changed his mind about a potential double dip after major U.S. companies reported solid profit growth in the first quarter of 2010 and European leaders approved a $1 trillion bailout package to deal with the region's debt crisis.
 
Granted, the picture isn't all rosy. Unemployment is still high at 9.7%. But Wyss points out that consumers are spending again. Plus, the average person on main street doesn't seem as worried about getting laid off as they were a year ago, he said.
 
Wyss's comments echo those of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who on Monday told reporters that he expects a continued economic recovery, in part because of revived consumer spending. Bernanke also said the recovery would be slow -- it "won't feel terrific," he said.
 
Bernanke dodged a question about whether he fears a double-dip recession, saying "nobody knows with any certainty."
 
 
To be sure, any chance of a double dip is nothing to shrug off.
 
Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, likes to call himself an optimist, but said he can't deny that when he talks to clients, he's blunt about the risk of a double dip. He calculates the chances of one happening at about 30%, whereas a few months ago, he would have said it was as low as 15%.
 

"We experienced the worst crisis in a generation and now there are major problems in Europe and with the oil spill. How optimistic can you expect an optimist to be?" he said.

The winding down of government stimulus programs and inventory rebuilding, which together accounted for much of the recovery, are the major factors behind a slowdown, Vitner said.
Add in geopolitical unrest and volatile global markets, and businesses, consumers and lawmakers alike will be more hesitant to make investments that could support economic growth.
 

"One of the things to remember is conditions do not have to be perfect for the economy to grow," Vitner said. "But there's a limit to how much bad news this economy can take."

Read full post
Categories:   | Abbeydale, Calgary Real Estate | Airdrie, Airdrie Real Estate | Alberta Housing Market | alberta housing market forecast 2012 | Alberta Housing Market, housing projections, cmhc | Alberta Housing Market, housing projections, cmhc, Calgary housing market, chestermere homes for sale | Alberta Land Tax | Android | April Market Update | April Market Updates for Calgary | Arbour Lake, Calgary Real Estate | Bowness, Calgary Real Estate | Bragg Creek, Bragg Creek Real Estate | Bridlewood, Calgary Real Estate | Calgary cash incentives | Calgary Economic Recovery | calgary economy | Calgary Economy, Calgary Housing Market, Calgary Real Estate, Chestermere Real Estate | Calgary Econonomy, Calgary Housing Market, Calgary Real Estate, Chestermere Real Estate | Calgary Grants | Calgary home market | Calgary Home Prices | Calgary home sales | Calgary Homes For Sale | Calgary Housing | Calgary Housing Market | Calgary Housing Market Outlook 2012 | calgary housing market statistics | Calgary Housing Market Update | Calgary Housing Stats | Calgary Housing Trend | Calgary Market Forecast | Calgary Market Outlook 2012 | Calgary Market Update | Calgary Open House | Calgary Properties | Calgary Real Estate | Calgary Real Estate Forecast | Calgary Real Estate Market | Calgary Real Estate Stats | Calgary Relocation | Canada Housing Market | Canada Mortgage Update | Cardston, Cardston Real Estate | Chestermere | Chestermere home for sale | Chestermere Homes | Chestermere Housing Market | Chestermere Open House | Chestermere Real Estate | Chestermere Real Estate Stats | Chestermere Realtor | Chestermere, Chestermere Real Estate | Cityscape, Calgary Real Estate | CMA, Market Analysis, Selling Price, Fair Market Value, Home Value, home price | CMHC | Connaught | Connaught, Calgary Real Estate | Country Hills | Country Hills, Calgary Real Estate | Coventry Hills, Calgary Real Estate | Deer Ridge, Calgary Real Estate | Deer Run, Calgary Real Estate | economic recovery | Economy | Evanston, Calgary Real Estate | Executive Home for Sale | Falconridge, Calgary Real Estate | Finance | First Time Home Buyers | foreclosure | Garrison Green | Garrison Green, Calgary Real Estate | Harvest Hills, Calgary Real Estate | Hawkwood, Calgary Real Estate | Hillhurst, Calgary Real Estate | Housing Trends | Inglewood, Calgary Real Estate | IPhone | January 2013 Market Update | Lakeside Home For Sale | Langdon | Langdon, Langdon Real Estate | Mahogany, Calgary Real Estate | Market Trends | Market Update | Market Value | Marlborough Park, Calgary Real Estate | Martindale, Calgary Real Estate | Mayland Heights, Calgary Real Estate | McKenzie Towne, Calgary Real Estate | MLS QR Code | MLS Search | MLS Search, Personal Real Estate Office, Real Estate, home search, compare homes, search for homes | Monterey Park, Calgary Real Estate | Mortgage | Mortgage Fraud | Mortgage Rates | Mortgage Registration | Mortgages | New Listing | Okotoks, Foothills Real Estate | Okotoks, Okotoks Real Estate | Open House | Pineridge, Calgary Real Estate | Pricing Your Home For Sale | QR Code | Real Estate | Real Estate App | Real Estate Forecast | Real Estate GPS QR Code | Real Estate Integrity | Real Estate QR Code | Real Estate, Chestermere Real Estate, Calgary, Buy, Sell, home | Recession | Redcarpet_Mountview, Calgary Real Estate | Rent vs Buy | Rental Property | Rental Property, Calgary Rental, First Time Home Buyers | Rosscarrock | Rosscarrock, Calgary Real Estate | Rural Rocky View MD, Rural Rocky View County Real Estate | Rural Rocky View MD, Rural Rocky View MD Real Estate | Rural Rocky View MD, Rural Rockyview County Real Estate | Rural Wheatland County, Rural Wheatland County Real Estate | Sage Hill, Calgary Real Estate | Secondary Suite | Sell Your Home | Selling Your Home | Shawnessy, Calgary Real Estate | Somerset | South Calgary, Calgary Real Estate | Southview, Calgary Real Estate | Spruce Cliff, Calgary Real Estate | Strathmore | Strathmore, Strathmore Real Estate | Suite | Sundance, Calgary Real Estate | Temple, Calgary Real Estate | Turtle Lake Real Estate | Tuscany, Calgary Real Estate | Victoria Park, Calgary Real Estate | Whitehorn | Whitehorn, Calgary Real Estate
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