CREB® forecasts moderate sales, price growth


Calgary, Jan.15, 2014

Continuing employment growth and two consecutive years of high net migration levels will underpin a 3.6 per cent growth in resale home sales in Calgary this year, with prices increasing by 4.3 per cent, CREB® said today in its annual forecast. The rate of net migration is expected to slow from 2013’s rate, but CREB® estimates that, even with the moderating growth,24,335 homes will be sold in the city this year.


City of Calgary census figures reported net migration of 19,067 in 2013 and forecasts growth of 15,000 new residents this year. “In 2014, both sales activity and prices are expected to improve, but not at the same pace recorded in2013,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s chief economist. “While factors influencing demand will support growth in 2014, new listings and increased competition from the new home sector should alleviate some of the supply pressure in the market.”


The benchmark price on single-family homes in Calgary is expected to reach $467,100, while the benchmark price on apartment condominiums and apartment townhomes will reach $281,798 and $208,690 respectively. The report notes that homes in surrounding communities provide an affordable choice for those looking for single family product.


On aggregate, 2013 annual benchmark prices in surrounding towns were $348,575versus the $458,017 aggregate within city limits. As supply for lower priced single family declines, demand will continue to grow in surrounding communities, as buyers make lifestyle choices or seek more affordable alternatives to the city.


“Calgary and area is well positioned this year to see growth in the housing market,” said Bill Kirk, 2014 CREB® president. “Price growth in the CREB® trading area will continue to encourage sellers back into the market, pushing up the level of new listings.


“New construction is also expected to add to the housing supply, but not push us into an over-supply situation.”


Lurie noted several positive and negative risk factors could affect the way the year unfolds. For example, if net migration does not ease, expected housing supply growth will likely not meet the demand need, causing price growth to exceed expectations.


Lurie noted Calgary and area’s economic health is closely linked to the health of the energy sector. Significant delays or rejection of new pipelines and difficulties raising capital for investment projects could slow energy sector growth and impact consumer confidence in the Calgary market, which would ultimately translate into weaker demand for housing. However, in the sametoken an improving U.S. economy and positive momentum in our energy sector would have the opposite impact on confidence bolstering demand.


For the entire CREB® forecast, visit:



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