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Third quarter 2019 housing market update: Stronger sales driven by affordable product and supply reduction

City of Calgary, October 22, 2019 – Third-quarter activity continues to show signs of improvement. Similar to last quarter, much of the improvement in the market has been driven by supply adjustments.


However, the housing market has also benefited from stronger year-over-year gains in sales activity this quarter. Price declines have likely contributed to some of the demand growth. Also, sales growth has been driven by product priced under $500,000.


“This is a market with divergent trends. The lower end of the market is recording improving sales and easing supply. This is supporting more stability in prices. However, at the higher end of the market we continue to see slower sales and rising supply,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


“Persistent struggles in the overall economy have caused a shift in salary expectations, along with adjustments in housing demand. Improvements in the lower end of the market will eventually impact higher price ranges, but we are still in a buyers’ market. We are facing enough economic risk that it will prolong the time it takes to move the entire market to more stable conditions.”


Supply continues to adjust in the resale market, mostly due to reductions in new listings. Easing starts and lower vacancy rates are also helping reduce overall supply levels. These supply adjustments will help support more stability in prices, but often move at a slower pace compared to supply reductions driven by demand growth.


Nonetheless, the easing supply compared to sales is helping push the market toward more balanced conditions and reducing the level of price declines. Prices continue to remain nearly three per cent lower than last year’s levels, but the pace of decline is easing, and third-quarter prices remained relatively stable compared to second-quarter figures. While we are far from price recovery, pressure on prices should ease if these adjustments continue.


Three things to know about the 2019 third-quarter market update:
• Sales activity improved by 6.75 per cent compared to last year, driven by gains in the under-$500,000 segment.
• On average, inventories declined by nearly 14 per cent compared to last year.
• The third-quarter benchmark price was $425,533. This is a decline of 2.74 per cent year-over-year, but a 0.31 per cent increase quarter-over-quarter.


For more information, please refer to CREB®‘s Q3 2019 Calgary & Region Quarterly Update Report, available here.


https://www.creblink.com/-/media/Public/CREBcom/Housing_Statistics/Q32019ForecastReport.pdf?la=en&fbclid=IwAR19sBUaSUwiIYkRlAmSLtJqNzrfXQi4936c42Oztj-_7hjrR3UGZE1XG6k

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In fact, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says we’re good for the next two years.

 

Mario Toneguzzi takes a look at the latest report out this morning.

 

In it, the CMHC says the average price in the Calgary area will rise from $460,584 in 2014 to $469,000 in 2015 and to $479,000 in 2016.


But sales are expected to fall from 33,615 in 2014 to 32,500 this year and rise to 32,700 in 2016.

CMHC expects housing starts in the Calgary region to drop from 17,131 in 2014 to 13,600 in 2015 and to 12,100 in 2016.

 

The agency predicts similar trends for the province.

For Alberta, the agency forecasts housing starts will decline from 40,590 last year to 36,000 this year and 34,500 in 2016.

 

MLS sales for the province are expected to dip from 71,773 in 2014 to 71,100 in 2015 and then rise slightly to 71,600 in 2016.

 

Average prices are expected to rise in Alberta from $400,590 in 2014 to $407,100 in 2015 and $415,000 in 2016.

 

Original Article from the Calgary Herald February 6, 2015 http://calgaryherald.com/storyline/forget-what-youve-been-hearing-cmhc-is-still-forecasting-home-prices-will-rise-in-calgary

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Despite an economic pummelling from faltering oil prices that’ll cool the city’s housing market, real estate analysts are predicting some modest growth in the sector.

 

While numbers in the city’s housing industry will fall from record-setting figures of 2014, prices should increase by 1.58% this year, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) said Wednesday. But sales are predicted to fall by 4% in 2015 compared to an extraordinarily hot 2014, said CREB Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who added that modest price increase is more hold-the line than anything.

 

“In fact, that’s actually level to the end of last year,” she said. There’s no denying the role of tumble in the price of oil that’s dropped by more than 50% since last June, said Lurie. “The housing risks lie mainly with employment levels and net migration, both of which can be more severely impacted by a prolonged period of weakness in the energy sector,” said Lurie, adding if energy prices falter longer, housing forecasts could change. “Those estimates on employment might reverse, it could hit harder.”

 

Last year, total housing starts were up in Calgary by 36.7% over 2013, said the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). But the agency has predicted a 16.7% decrease in that activity this year.  Lurie said the market shouldn’t be impacted as badly as it was in the last recession because the broader economic fundamentals are more sound now.

 

“It’s not the losses we saw in 2009,” she said.  Meanwhile, Royal LePage also said falling oil prices will substantially cool a red hot housing market that should still see gains in 2015. Housing prices should increase by 2.4% this year, due largely to a limited supply facing buyers, said broker Ted Zaharko, owner of Royal LePage Foothills.

 

“While we expect price rises may moderate in 2015, the upward trend we’ve seen over the past few years is unlikely to reverse without a meaningful increase in inventory,” said Zaharko.

 

He called the impact of tumbling oil prices “worrying” that should have some immediate effect, but said their ultimate impact might not be dramatic.  “There would need to be prolonged low oil prices for any spillover into the housing market to be significant,” said Zaharko.

 

Some economic analysts are predicting a lengthy swoon for oil prices that could lead to a prolonged economic downturn, particularly in Alberta and the West. On Tuesday, the Conference Board of Canada predicted Alberta will fall into recession this year. But Premier Jim Prentice said that while the province is taking a major hit, its economy shouldn’t suffer to that extent.

 

Original article by Bill Kaufmann, Calgary Sun

bill.kaufmann@sunmedia.ca

on Twitter: @SUNBillKaufmann

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Pressure on supply of homes for sale

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald

 

CALGARY - Although additional resale housing inventory is expected to hit the Calgary market in the spring, a new real estate report says it will be absorbed by strong consumer demand.

The report by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, released Tuesday, said the outlook for Calgary’s real estate market is positive based on key economic indicators and demand is being “driven by low interest rates, tight rental and resale real estate markets and strong economic fundamentals.”

 

Ross McCredie, president and chief executive of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said Calgary’s marketplace demand is due to a number of factors including high incomes and strong net migration to the city.

 

“People feel pretty confident more than any other market in Canada in terms of the future of it,” he said. “The new product that’s out there, the existing product and if you look at all of the data that supports it, it’s not as if you have an over-supply of product . . . Calgary is not that big of a market compared to say Toronto or even Vancouver. You do have a significant demand out there. You’ve got a lot of people looking for high quality real estate. When people make money they typically try to buy real estate. That hasn’t changed.

 

“If you look at the Calgary market, probably more than any market you’ve got more pressure on supply than any market in Canada.”

 

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, month to date from March 1-17, there have been 1,264 MLS sales in the city, up 13.26 per cent from the same period last year. But new listings of 1,782 are down by 1.44 per cent and active listings of 3,126 are off by 20.17 per cent.

The median price has jumped by 9.0 per cent to $433,000 while the average sale price has risen by 6.25 per cent to $482,307. And the average days on the market to sell a home has dropped to 27 from 35 last year.

 

“Low inventory and high demand from buyers have resulted in bidding wars, multiple offers and an increase in sales above asking prices for single-family homes both in the city and its surrounding areas. Low vacancy rates are also encouraging first-time buyers into the market, driving specific demand for homes in the $300,000 to $700,000 range with the effect trickling up to homes at higher price points,” said Sotheby’s Housing & Economic Outlook report.

 

“In recent years, Calgary has stood out as a pillar of strength among Canada’s major urban centres, bolstered by continued economic growth and record-breaking real estate market performance. This resilience helped the city’s housing market recover from the effects of widespread flooding that took place in June and July 2013, described by the provincial government as the worst in Alberta’s history.”

 

It said Alberta in the year ahead is expected to lead the country in total capital investment growth driven largely by oil and gas extraction and pipelines.

The report said anticipated regulatory approval of any one of the many proposed pipeline projects will also contribute positively to the momentum of the city’s economic performance in 2014.

 

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

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9.6% annual hike for repeat home sales to record level

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald

 

CALGARY - Calgary’s housing market continues to shine compared with the rest of the country as local residental real estate prices showed the highest growth rate in Canada in February, according to a report released Wednesday on repeat home sales.

 

Calgary prices rose by 9.6 per cent year-over-year and by 1.1 per cent month-over-month - both the best in the country and to an all-time high for the city, said the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index.

 

Nationally, of 11 centres surveyed, prices were up 5.0 per cent from last year and by 0.3 per cent from January.

 

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation.

 

The trend in price increases in Calgary does not appear to be changing in March. According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, so far this month from March 1-11, the average MLS sale price in the city is up 5.28 per cent from the same time a year ago to $480,345 while the median price has increased by 7.25 per cent to $429,000. CREB stats indicate there have been 796 MLS sales so far this month, up 10.71 per cent from last year but new listings are down 4.05 per cent to 1,114 and active listings are off by 18.80 per cent to 3,049.

 

The Teranet-National Bank report said that for the second month in a row, prices for Canada as a whole rose to an all-time high, though new records were set in only two of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed - Vancouver (for a fourth straight month) and Calgary (for the first time since September 2007).

 

The gain from a year earlier was well above the cross-country average in two of the 11 markets, Calgary and Vancouver (7.7 per cent). It was slightly above the average in Toronto (6.1 per cent) and Edmonton (5.3 per cent), equal to the average in Hamilton (5.0 per cent) and below it in Winnipeg (3.5 per cent) and Montreal (1.9 per cent).

 

In Halifax (4.7 per cent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.6 per cent), prices were down from a year earlier for a second consecutive month. In Victoria (3.4 per cent), home prices have been down from a year earlier for 12 months now. Quebec City posted its first 12 month deflation in 15 years (2.0 per cent). It is the first time since October 2009 that there is price deflation in at least four of the regions covered, said the report.

 

“In February the east-west dichotomy became more pronounced than ever,” it said.

Home prices were up from the month before in all five markets of Western Canada - Calgary, Vancouver and Victoria (0.9 per cent), Edmonton (0.6 per cent) and Winnipeg (0.5 per cent). The rise in Victoria ended a run of four consecutive monthly declines. For Vancouver it was the 10th consecutive monthly increase. In the six markets of central and eastern Canada, the only monthly rise was in Montreal (0.7 per cent), the second advance after six months of flat or declining prices. Prices were down 0.1 per cent in Toronto, making February the fourth month without a gain in the last six. For Ottawa-Gatineau (0.8 per cent) it was the sixth decline in a row, for Quebec City (1.7 per cent) the sixth in seven months. For Halifax (1.7 per cent) it was the third decline in a row, said the report.

 

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

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BMO report says Canadians willing to pay more to get what they want

 By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald March 5, 201

CALGARY - Prospective Canadian homebuyers are more willing to enter into a bidding war this year for properties they want to purchase, says a new report released Wednesday by BMO.

 

And Calgary’s hot housing market is proving to be a good example of that as nearly 20 per cent of MLS residential sales in the city in February were for above list price.

 

The BMO Home Buying Report said 34 per cent of Canadians are willing to enter a bidding war when it’s time to buy a home, an increase of six points, or 21 per cent, from a year ago.

 

The report, conducted by Pollara, said that in major city centres, the appetite for competitive bids is the highest in Toronto and Vancouver (44 per cent and 41 per cent respectively). In Calgary, it is 38 per cent and in Alberta, it is 30 per cent.

 

“While many suspect bidding wars are triggered by sellers who deliberately price their homes below market, the report shows that just 15 per cent of owners have that motivation, with those on the Prairies and in Toronto the most likely to pursue this strategy - but even then the numbers are modest at 24 per cent and 22 per cent respectively,” said BMO, which says average home prices across Canada continue to rise, gaining momentum in the past year, with the average transaction price up nearly 10 per cent year-over-year in January. The average home sale price in Canada is currently just over $400,000.

“Calgary’s market continues to see the strongest fundamentals; Vancouver has rebounded from a soft patch; while Toronto’s market remains relatively balanced overall, though the condo market is more amply supplied,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, in a statement. “Overall, sales are expected to hold relatively steady in the year ahead, with price growth in the low single-digit range, below the rate of income growth.”

 

Laura Parsons, mortgage expert with BMO Bank of Montreal, said the competition for real estate in Canada, particularly in hotter markets, can be fierce and turn into an emotional frenzy.

“A shortage of inventory is driving a lot of it,” said Parson of the Calgary market. “It’s such an emotional thing. When you see it, you get it. I remember the days when there were lineups of people behind each other. The minute you see that your heart starts to race and you want to not lose.

“Lots of people are prepared. They know what their high is . . . Calgary has the biggest income so we’re willing to spend more if we have to and hopefully we’ve been conservative before we go in and we know we have that room to bid higher.”

 

Parsons said many people don’t understand that they can renovate a home and build it into the purchase price.

 

For some people, she said, there’s a need to move before spring and they’re feeling the pressure.

Data released Monday by the Calgary Real Estate Board indicates all-time records, for any month, were set in February in the average city sale price ($482,530) and the median city price ($424,900) as well as in the single-family sale price ($550,312) and the single-family median price ($480,000).

 

“Calgary has been in a statistical sellers’ market since February 2013,” said Robyn Moser, a realtor with CIR Realty. “As time has passed, the sellers’ market has become increasingly aggressive. This has caused buyers to see lower and lower levels of inventory, placed into competing offers and homes selling in days if not hours. This cause is speculated to be the lack of available new home inventory due to Calgary sewer lines that are needing to be upgraded. This has placed metro Calgary real estate values into statistical unsustainable levels until the sewer line upgrade is complete.”

 

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

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New price tool shows year-over-year growth
 
Calgary, February 6, 2012 – The year-over-year value of homes in Calgary increased in January 2012 by 2.7 per cent, according to a new price measurement tool vetted by academia and financial industry experts, including the Bank of Canada.
 
The new MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was introduced today by the Canadian Real Estate Association in partnership with Canada’s five largest real estate boards – Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Toronto and Montreal.
 
The new tool measures how typical properties are valued in the market rather than relying on average and median prices. In January, for example, the average price declined year-over-year, but only because more homes were sold in the lower-price ranges compared to the previous year, when more luxury home sales occurred. 
   
“By combining information from the MLS® HPI with their own knowledge, experience and skills, REALTORS® can help their clients approach one of life’s most important decisions – that of buying or selling a home – with greater confidence,” says Bob Jablonski, president of CREB®.
 
The MLS® HPI is calculated using a sophisticated statistical model that estimates home prices based on their quantitative and qualitative features that are typical to that neighborhood, such as square footage, number of rooms above the basement level, number of bathrooms and half-bathrooms, whether the property has a fireplace and/or finished basement, lot size or the age of the property, to name a few. 
 
“The MLS® HPI is the best tool to determine true price trends in the market,” says Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® chief economist. “The commonly used average and median prices can be misleading as they are easily affected by the composition of what is sold.”
 
For buyers and sellers, the MLS® HPI determines what a typical home is valued at in their neighborhood, as well as how this compares to other neighborhoods. In addition, it provides a true price trend for their community.
 

“We are excited to be able to offer the purest, most accurate housing data that is currently available,” Jablonski says. “The MLS® HPI  can be used to not only determine pricing trends, but also to gain insight into the typical home in a specific market segment, adding value to the existing tools REALTORS® can use to value homes for both buyers and sellers.”

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Calgary, January 3, 2012
 

According to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board), Calgary residential sales in 2011 increased eight per cent over last year, with 18,568 sales for 2011 compared to

17,267 in 2010.

 

Recovering from tepid sales activity in the first half of 2011, early improvements in employment and migration resulted in a pickup in housing demand in the second half of the year. By the end of June 2011, year-to-date sales activity had only increased by two per cent compared to the second half of the year, where residential sales improved by 15 per cent.
 
“While sales activity in 2011 remained below the long run average by 17 per cent, monthly figures point towards the trend of this gap narrowing,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®.
 

2011 single family sales totaled 13,186, a nine per cent increase over last year. While sales increased, listings remained low, with an annual total of 24,245, six per cent lower than 2010 levels. The decline in listings relative to sales pushed down inventory levels to 2,761, resulting in four months of supply.

Meanwhile, the condominium market recorded declining sales for nearly half of the year, but favorable pricing and improved economic conditions pushed sales up by double digit rates for the second half of

the year. 2011 condo sales totaled 5,382, a 4 per cent increase over the previous year. The rise in sales was complemented by an annual 12 per cent decline in listings. This helped to tighten the condominium market, causing inventories to decline to 1,287 and months of supply to remain just above four months.
 
“The demand recovery in the condominium market lagged the single family market, as price adjustments in both the single family and condominium markets resulted in more selection for consumers,”
 

Stante says. “For the first time in several years, consumers had additional selection of single family homes at a lower price range, which directly competed with the condominium market.”

 
Single family average price in 2011 reached $466,402, a one per cent increase over last year. While there have been some strong monthly increases, primarily due to sales in the upper end skewing the prices, overall prices have remained fairly stable. Meanwhile, the year-end median price of 405,000 remains at levels similar to 2010.
 
Condominium prices have remained persistently low in 2011, while some of the monthly figures have been boosted by high end penthouse sales. By the end of 2011, the average price of $287,172 remained one per cent lower than the previous year.
 

“Throughout 2011, elevated levels of inventories have limited price growth as consumers benefitted from sufficient supply of housing to choose from; however, as these inventories drop to levels more

consistent with a balanced market, we can expect some moderate price growth moving forward,” Stante concludes.

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I have uploaded the Housing Market OutlookCalgary 2012 Provided by CMHC to the REPORTS section of my website. It is in PDF format and available for download.
 

This Outlook report for Calgary is published semi-annually and offers forecasts and analyses of trends in the new, resale and rental housing markets. For the new home market, housing starts and price changes are examined in detail, while the resale section presents sales activity, average prices, and listings. Analysis of the rental market focuses on vacancy rates, average rents and related forecasts. An overview and forecast of key economic indicators is also detailed, along with other factors affecting the local economy and housing market.

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By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald December 7, 2011
 
 
Fuelled by low interest rates and job security, demand for residential real estate in Calgary is on the upswing, says the Re/Max Housing Market Outlook 2012 report published Tuesday. And the real estate firm says Calgary will be a Canadian leader next year in the annual growth rate for MLS sales.
 
By year-end 2011, 22,500 homes are expected to change hands, an eight per cent increase over the 20,801 sales reported in 2010, it said. And the average price in Calgary is forecast to appreciate as well, rising a "modest" one per cent to $405,000 in 2011, up from $401,186 one year ago.
 
The report forecasts the average MLS sale price will jump by three per cent in 2012 to $417,000, while sales will rise by five per cent to 23,600 units.
 
Lowell Martens, of Re/ Max Real Estate (Mountain View) in Calgary, said any hesitation on the part of some buyers in the city is more than likely a direct reflection of the uncertainty in the European economic situation. He said commercial realestate construction taking place in Calgary "tells us the long-term feeling out there is very positive for Calgary."
 

"We have a very stable market over the next little while. We don't anticipate any big upswings, but at the same time we don't anticipate any big downswings either. It's going to be very stable," he said.

Buyers in the city are cautiously optimistic after more than two years of recession, making their moves while interest rates are at historic lows and housing values are affordable, said the report.
 
"Single-family homes remain most popular with purchasers, representing close to 60 per cent of total residential sales. Demand is greatest for entry-level product, priced between $350,000 and $450,000," it said. "Con-dominium apartments and town houses have also experienced solid momentum in recent months, with the lion's share of activity occurring from $200,000 to $300,000. Luxury home sales - priced over $1 million - have been particularly brisk, up approximately 25 per cent over 2010 levels."
 
While global concerns still loom, the market appears to be gaining some traction moving into the new year, said the report. Re/Max said Canadian residential realestate defied conventiona l logic and outperformed expectations in 2011, posting another solid year of housing activity virtually across the board. The trend is expected to carry forward into 2012 as Canadians "continue to demonstrate their faith in home ownership, despite concerns over the European debt crisis and its impact on the global economy."
 
"What 2011 proves is that real estate continues to have momentum," said Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president, Re/Max of Western Canada, in a statement
.
"The economic underpinnings support ongoing demand, particularly as job creation efforts continue and unemployment rates edge down further."
 
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Stable Pricing Providing Opportunities for Buyers

 

Calgary, December 1, 2011 – According to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board), Calgary residential sales in November increased eight per cent over last year, at 17,538 after the first 11 months of the year. 

 

While sales activity tends to taper off in the winter months, so far this year Calgary area sales remain significantly stronger than levels recorded last year. Single family home sales totaled 962 for the month, an increase of eight per cent from November 2010. Meanwhile, year-to-date sales totaled 12,464, a 10 per cent increase over last year. Over the long term, however, sales remained a tepid 17 per cent below the 10 year average. 

 

“Despite any global economic cautions, consumers are actively seeking well priced listings in the market, a reflection of their positive long term outlook for the city,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®. “Following two years of employment losses, the current growth in jobs is translating into improvements in the housing sector and a more optimistic consumer.”

 

November listings have edged down over last year’s levels, decreasing by two per cent. Lower listings combined with the increase in sales helped reduce the months of inventory to less than four months. 

 

The year-to-date average and median price of single family homes were a respective $467,140 and $406,500. Overall, prices remain relatively flat compared to last year. 

 

“This stable pricing provides an opportunity for buyers in our market. The addition of historically low interest rates, combined with a good selection of inventory, makes it a trifecta,” Stante says. “With positive wage growth in the wind, this is a signal, and a reminder, that this market opportunity will not remain forever.”

 

Condominium sales for the first 11 months of the year totaled 5,074, a five per cent rise over the same period last year. Inventory levels declined to 1,676 units, helping push down the months of supply. 

 

“The rise in condominium sales can be attributed to the confidence in the market, and is typical of this phase of a normal market recovery,” says Stante.

 

Condominium year-to-date average and median prices in 2011 were $287,545 and $261,500, respectively, a decline over the first 11 months of 2010, mostly due to increased sales in units priced under $200,000. 

 

“Calgary continues to record impressive employment growth and long term fundamentals remain strong,” Stante concludes. “The strength in our economy, combined with affordability levels that outperform most major centers, will continue to attract migrants to the city and spur further growth in our Calgary housing market.”

 

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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Housing Market Outlook 
 Date Released: Fourth Quarter 2011

Alberta Overview
Alberta’s housing starts are forecast to increase by 15.3 per cent to 29,200 units in 2012, following a 6.5 per cent decrease in 2011 to 25,325 units.
  
 These robust gains are a result of a number of factors. Firstly, the economy is projected to show relatively strong growth over the forecast period. In 2011, real gross domestic product is expected to rise by 3.1 per cent, followed by 3.5 per cent in 2012. Note, however, a pullback in oil prices during the summer, along with various wildfires, briefly slowed economic conditions, but these effects have dissipated.
  
 Secondly, employment growth is projected at 3.4 per cent in 2011, lowering the unemployment rate from 6.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent. By 2012, the unemployment rate is expected to be lowered to 5.1 per cent. As a result, this will put upward pressure on Alberta’s housing sector.

 

Finally, the demographic outlook for Alberta is positive. With an improving economy generating jobs, it is expected more migrants will choose Alberta as their home. Last year was a 15-year low for migration to Alberta.

 

Moving forward, expect significant growth in migration this year with further gains in 2012. These gains are also expected to put upward pressure on the demand for housing within the province.

 

In Detail

 

 
Single Starts: Single-detached starts are projected to decline about ten per cent in 2011, as builders mitigate the risk of rising inventories. Over the balance of the forecast period, demand for single-detached homes will improve with a growing economy and job creation. In 2012, single-detached starts are expected to rise by over 15 per cent to 18,400 units. The number of single-detached units under construction in August was at approximately half the level reported five years ago. However, with the inventory of complete and unabsorbed units up from the previous year, builders have been cautious about expanding production.

 

  
Multiple Starts: More affordable condominium projects are now competing with the resale market and enticing some renters to move into new condominium units. After a slow start to this year, the pace of multi-family starts has picked-up and is expected to edge past last year’s level of production. In 2012, demand is expected to improve with rising incomes and new household formation, raising the level of multi-family production by 14.6 per cent to 10,800 units.

 

  
Resales: The number of MLS® sales in Alberta is projected to increase by over six per cent in 2011 to 52,800 units. In 2012, MLS® sales are projected to rise to 53,900 units.

 

  
Prices:   Most of Alberta’s major urban centres remain in buyers’ market conditions as indicated by a sales-to-new listings ratio that has fluctuated around 50 per cent this year. The average resale price in 2011 is expected to rise fractionally above last year’s average, with much of the price movement attributed to compositional effects. As Alberta’s economy generates employment and attracts more migrants, demand will rise and improve market balance. The average resale price in Alberta is projected to rise by more than two per cent in 2012 to $362,700.
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First year-over-year increase in monthly condominium sales since April 2010

 

Calgary, July 4, 2011 – According to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board), residential sales surged in the month of June 2011 to 1,979 units. While this indicates a third more sales than June 2010, the year-todate increase proved a moderate 2 per cent. Strong monthly increases does not imply a housing boom, as it is important to put into perspective that sales

activity remains below long term averages. While the single family market has shown signs of improvement throughout the first half of this year, this is the first time since April 2010 that condominium sales have recorded a year-over year increase.

 

“Improved housing demand is being fueled by a younger demographic and, with the affordability of homes in Calgary, we are continuing to see young Calgarians pursue ownership over rentals,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®.

 

“Historically, Calgary’s average family income has been higher than the national average and a younger more mobile demographic has been attracted to good paying professional jobs in Calgary. As the economy continues to build momentum, we expect this same trend will support a balanced and healthy

housing market in the second half of 2011 and into 2012.”

 

With 581 sales for the month of June 2011, the condominium market improved by 31 per cent over June of 2010, however year-to-date figures show a 5 per cent decrease over the same period last year.

 

“Condo sales bounced back this month, and we now have less than four months of supply on the market. Stronger condo sales, combined with a decline in inventory, will lend more balance to this market in the months to come,” says Stante.

 

After the first half of the year, average prices of condominiums are still slightly lower than levels recorded last year, as more buyers bought condominiums under $200,000 in 2011 compared to 2010 for the same period.
 

“Buyers in this market expect value and many are taking advantage of some affordable buys in both the single family and condo markets. It highlights using a skilled REALTOR® to properly price your home for your unique market area,” says Stante.

 

The single family market recorded 1,398 sales in the month of June 2011. This is an increase of 32 per cent when compared to June 2010 when 1,059 single family homes sold in the city of Calgary. With a total of 7,231 sales after the first half of the year, year-to-date single family sales are 6 per cent higher than last year.

 

“While new listings are still lower than levels recorded last year, the rate of decline has eased. With the market shifting to more balanced conditions in recent months, sellers are feeling more confident to list their home. Overall our absorption rate has remained relatively stable, staving off any significant rise in

prices,” says Stante.

 

Year-to-date average price of a single family home in Calgary is $472,330, while the median price is $410,000, virtually unchanged over levels recorded in the previous year. The distribution of sales by price range has not shown any significant shift compared to last year, pointing to continued stability in the market.
 

“After the first half of the year, it appears the recovery in the housing market is starting to find its footing.

This gradual leveling has been fueled by growth in employment, and in particular growth in full time jobs. Improved job prospects, combined with an increase in the number of people moving to Calgary, will give lift to our housing market for the remainder of this year and into the

next,” says Stante.

 

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Higher priced homes selling faster as listings trend down
 

According to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board), City of Calgary year-to-date sales declined by 4 per cent compared to the first four months of 2010. The decline was offset by a 14 per cent drop in listings recorded over the same period, resulting in lower inventory levels, and a moderate growth in average prices.

 

In April 2011, single family home sales were 1,217, while 2,299 listings came to market, a decline of 10 per cent over April 2010 and 25 per cent, respectively. Inventory levels rose slightly over March 2011

levels, but remained well below inventories recorded in April 2010, and close to the long term average, indicating the market continues to show balanced conditions.
 
“While our spring market has been a little slow to get started, we are seeing our inventory levels return to healthy levels,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®. “This trend, combined with an improving job market, will help warm up Calgary’s housing market in the coming months.”
 
Along with a decline in inventory, Stante points out that homes in the higher-end of the market are selling faster, with average days on market trending down, and below the 5-year average.
 
“We are seeing improvements in the sale of homes in the higher price points. Homes above $700,000 are selling within an average of 41 days. This is consistent with pre-recession levels,” says Stante.
 
To view the full report and current Calgary market stats, click here.
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Calgary, February 1, 2011
 

– Single family home sales in the City of Calgary edged upwards month-over-month and showed the first yearover-year increase since April  2010, according to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board).

 

The number of single family home sales in the month of January 2011 were 787, compared with December 2010, when sales were 734— an increase of about 7 per cent. The number of condominium sales for the month of January 2011 was 297. This was down from the 320 condominium transactions recorded in December 2010.
 
Year-over-year, the number of single family homes sold in January 2011 in the city of Calgary increased by just over 3 per cent. In January 2010, single family home sales totaled 762. Condominium sales saw a decrease of 21 per cent from the same time a year ago. In January 2010, condominium sales were 376.
 
“More affordable housing will continue to attract homebuyers to the inner-city, particularly as employment in the city of Calgary continues to improve,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®. “Single family homes in the city are currently driving this gradual recovery, and we are seeing an uptick in the sale of homes below the $350,000 price point. This may suggest more first time homebuyers are entering the market, providing the fuel needed for a sustained housing recovery.”
 
The average price of a single family home in the city of Calgary in January 2011 was $454,287, showing a 3 per cent increase from December 2010, when the average price was $441,341, and a 3 per cent increase from January 2010, when the average price was $441,217. The average price of a condominium in the city of Calgary in January 2011 was $287,954, showing a 2 per cent increase from December 2010, when the average price was $282,768 and a 2 per cent increase over last year, when the average price was $282,639.
 
The median price of a single family home in the city of Calgary for January 2011 was $390,000, showing a slight increase from December 2010 when the median price was $389,000. This was a 2 per cent decrease from January 2010, when the median price was $398,000.
 
The median price of a condominium in January 2011 was $255,000, showing a 1 per cent decrease from December 2010, when the median price was $258,500, and a 4 per cent decrease from January 2010, when it was $265,000.
 
“The recovery in 2011 will be incremental and gradual. Nonetheless, at the moment Calgary is offering buyers a great deal of affordability, low interest rates and a large selection of inventory,” says Stante. “Overall the first quarter of 2011 will show modest improvements in sales which will lay the foundation for the return to a more balanced market,” he adds.
 

Single family listings in the city of Calgary added for the month of January 2011 totaled 1958, an increase of 169 per cent from December 2010 when 728 new listings were added, and showing an increase of 7 per cent from January 2010, when 1822 new listings came to the market.

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Well, we finally have some details and insight for the 2011 housing market, and it's about to get tougher for new home owners, and even those currently in the market.

There have been significant announcements this week for everyone interesting in buying or selling a home.  Timing is everything, and it appears that once again, there will be some significant changes that you need to be aware of. 

Considering the forecast for the Calgary Housing market to start increasing in pricing, and the tighter mortgage rules that will be coming into force in 60 days, now might be a vital window for home owners that are currently considering a move.

It is especially urgent for homeowners who are currently wishing to sell their current homes and lock in a new mortgage rate on a newly purchased home.  With only 60 days to finalize before the new rates come into effect, it will be a challenge to get a home on the market and sold in time to take advantage of the current status.  The up side is that over the next two months, the market may get very fluid with those who need to take advantage of the current mortgage rules.

I received the following details from one of my mortgage specialists advising that there will be some major changes in how mortgages are approved. This is a significant tightening for those of you who are currently considering purchasing a new home.

1.       No more 35 year amortizations

 

As of March 18, 2011 all insured deals will be allowed a 30 year amortization. Any fully signed contracts whether it be a purchase or refinance committed to by CMHC on or before March 18 will be honoured over 35 years.  You cannot have an increase in price after this date - if you do, you will be subject to the 30 year amortization.

2.       Refinancing has been scaled back to 85%.

 

As of March 18th,  home owners will have access to 85% of the value of a home instead of the current 90%. This will affect  you as a  home buyer when you take equity out of your home for a down payment.  In this case, you won’t be able to get as much funding up front and your monthly  payments will be higher.

Current and potential buyers please note that the magic date is March 18th, 2011.

On a $450,000 purchase with 5% down, this would save you $200.00 per month in mortgage payments and your affordability increases by 3%.

For those who are considering a home purchase requiring an insured mortgage (less than 20% down payment), you will want to complete pre-approval and possession of home prior to March 18 2011.

If you are currently sitting on the fence as to whether or not to make your move it is important to understand that buying today will save you money in the long run. After March 18th, this window will be closed.

If you are currently considering a home purchase and would like to speak to a mortgage specialist, I have excellent resources who are very talented in obtaining financing.  Please feel free to call me at 403-399-0809 and I will put you in touch with someone who can assist you according to your current circumstances.

For further information on these changes, and the background associated, here are a few links you can visit:

The Harper Government Takes Prudent Action to Support the Long-Term Stability of Canada’s Housing Market

Backgrounder: Supporting the long-term stability of Canada’s housing market

CALGARY HERALD ARTICLE: FeDERAL GOVERNMENT TIGHTENS MORTGAGE RULES AGAIN

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The Calgary Real Estate Board released is annual forecast on Tuesday, advising that there will be a recovery in the market this year with improved sales compared with 2010.

The board is predicting that Calgary's housing inventory levels are expected to stabilize, which will result in a return to a more balanced and sustainable housing market.

It forecasts single-family home sales to increase by 19.9 per cent this year to 14,500 transactions  and the average MLS sale price is predicted to rise 4.1 per cent to $480,000.

The board also predicted that condominium sales will rise by 15.8 per cent to 6000 transactions with the average sale price increasing by 1.8 per cent to $295,900.

In the towns outside of Calgary market, the board is forecasting a 13.5 per cent increase to 4,000 with the average price increasing by 2.6 per cent to $368,500.

Sano Stante, president of the real estate board, said that his forecast wouldn't change in light of the federal government's announcement to toughen up mortgage lending practices.

"We are expecting in-migration into Calgary.  If we see the job growth that we expect to happen in Calgary then the in-migration should drive the sales."

The boards report states that the key to market recovery in 2011 will be permanent job creation sufficient to stimulate in-migration. Recovery in the first half of the year will be more modest, picking up pace in the second half. Recovery of sales will be from single family homes close to the downtown core, and by condos and single family homes in the outlying areas.

" 2011 will offer buyers unprecedented affordability, low interest rates and a large selection of inventory."

The CMHC, is predicting increased sales, with residential properties in the sold in the Calgary area to increase by 2.0 per cent this year to 20,700 units, with an increase in the average sale price.

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Housing sales in December declined from November, and the median house price has dropped 3% in comparison to 2009. Following are excerpts from the most current news release from the Calgary Real Estate Board.
 
Home and condo sales in Calgary and area remained relatively unchanged in December 2010, indicating that a full-fledged recovery in the housing market has yet to take hold, according to
fi gures released today by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®).
 

 

The number of single family home sales in the month of December 2010 were 734, compared with

November 2010, when sales were 891—a decline of about 18 per cent. The number of condominium sales for the month of December 2010 was 320. This was up from the 310 condominium transactions recorded in November 2010.

 
Undoubtedly housing markets in Alberta and Calgary underperformed in 2010, as sales recoveries did not materialize as forecasted. In many ways, re-sales in 2010 showed a repeat of 2008, with a short lived resurgence in the  fi rst few months, when confi dence returned to the market,” says Diane Scott, president of CREB®.
 

 

“Employment and net-migration have been slower to pick up here in Calgary—and these are key drivers of our housing market. The good news is we arenow seeing marked improvements in investment and employment in the energy sector. We believe these green shoots in our economy, supported by improved affordability and low interest rates, will eventually translate into a gradual recovery of our housing market as we move into 2011,” adds Scott.

 

“Supply outstripped demand in the second half of 2010, establishing conditions for a buyers’ market. Overall we did see significant improvements in affordability in the Calgary market in 2010—and I think the message to prospective buyers is that this is a great time to buy if you’re looking for good selection, specific locations and price points. The median price did indeed decline in 2010, signaling a year-over-year price correction of about 2 per cent for single-family homes, just over 4 per cent for condos and 6 per cent for the outlying towns,” adds Scott.

 

Single family listings in the city of Calgary added for the month of December 2010 totaled 744, a decrease of 44 per cent from November 2010 when 1,318 new listings were added, and showing a decrease of 8 per cent from December 2009, when 806 new listings came to the market.

Condominium new listings in the city of Calgary added for December 2010 were 369, down 42 per cent from November 2010, when the MLS® saw 632 condo listings coming to the market. This is a decrease of 17 per cent from December 2009, when new condominium listings added were 444.
 
To read the entire report and see the latest statistics, visit http://www.creb.com/public/documents/statistics/2010/package/res-stats-2010%20December.pdf
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The Calgary Herald today released a economic forecast provided by Scotiabank.  I have posted the information below, with a link back to the original article at the Calgary Herald website.
Alberta will lead the country in economic growth in 2011, building on a resource-led rebound this year, a new report suggests.

In its latest forecast released Wednesday, Scotiabank expects Alberta's economy to expand 3.5 per cent, the most growth among the provinces. The province is expected to post three per cent growth this year.

"Resource-related activity is ramping up alongside strong emerging-market demand for key industrial products, which along with a weaker U.S. dollar, is boosting commodity prices," said Scotia Economics economist Alex Koustas in a release.

The report also noted that Alberta's job market has been slow to catch up to national gains, but expects "substantial" improvements in 2011.

The housing market posted strong rebound in starts, with potential for steady gains as in-migration return to growth, it noted.

Housing starts have recovered sharply this year after steep declines in 2008-09. "Net flow turned positive in the first half of 2010, a trend that should continue as job prospects improve, supporting the outlook for retail and housing activity," Scotiabank said.

The pace of economic growth is more cautious than other recent forecasts, which also show the province to return to the head of the pack next year. RBC Economics pegs Alberta's economy to grow 4.3 per cent next year.

Rising prices for commodities such as oil and metals will play a role in bolstering certain parts of the country, the report said.

 
Read more:

 

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Secondary Suites Grant Program:

Getting Started

What is the Grant Program?

The Secondary Suite Grant Program offers a grant of up to $25,000 to cover up to 70 % of the costs of developing or upgrading a legal secondary suite. It was launched in April 2009 and will run until December 2012.

How can I apply?

·         Check out your eligibility by answering the questions below.

·         Grant Program Brochure: download & read.

·         Grant Application Form: download, complete, sign and return.

·         Grant Agreement: download, complete, sign and return.

·         Questions? Call Jacquie Mercier Mc-Murrer on 403-268-5406.

If you answer YES to these questions then you are eligible to apply for the Grant Program…

·         Is your property within a land-use district that allows a secondary suite?
Visit calgary.ca/myproperty to find out what your land-use district is.
Visit calgary.ca/secondarysuites to find out if your land-use district allows secondary suites.

·         Is your property a single detached home?
(i.e. You don't share any walls with a neighbour)

·         Are you the registered property owner?

·         Do you live in the primary home?

·         Are you prepared to rent out your suite at no more than the maximum rent for 5 years?

·         Are you prepared to accept all the terms of the Grant Agreement?

What do I have to agree to?

·         You must contribute a minimum of 30% of the costs of developing or upgrading your suite.

·         The rent you charge must be no more than the average market rent for a similar property in Calgary. This is currently $855 (including utilities). This information is updated each year in the Calgary Mortgage and Housing Corporation rental review - www.cmhc.ca.

·         You must enter into the Grant Agreement and your suite must be available for rent for 5 years.

·         You must live in the home throughout the Grant Agreement term.

·         You must provide information annually to show that your suite was available for rent at no more than an average market rent.

What is a secondary suite?

A secondary suite (also known as a basement suite, mother-in-law suite or granny suite) is a self-contained living space located on the same property as a detached house. It has a separate entrance, cooking, sleeping and bathing facilities. For more information, go to calgary.ca/secondarysuites.

Is a secondary suite a good idea for me?

Developing or upgrading a secondary suite may take some time to complete and require a significant financial investment by you. You should gather as much information as possible before making your decision about whether to move ahead. Download more information from the right hand side of this page that can help you.
 
A secondary suite works well for some tenants while providing welcome additional income for landlords. Tenants often enjoy living in a residential neighbourhood with a backyard, access to laundry, close to schools and parks and they may get along well with you as their landlord. However, it does not work well for everyone.
 

You can often avoid conflicts about noise, utility costs, privacy, sharing the backyard, laundry, etc. by ensuring you have an agreement in writing, which you've discussed in advance and that both you and your tenant have signed. As a landlord you have rights and responsibilities, which you need to be aware of before you make the decision to rent out your suite. You can get more information from servicealberta.ca, landlordandtenant.org, and calapt.org.

Why is The City offering a Grant Program?

The City of Calgary is offering a Secondary Suites Grant Program as part of the Enterprise Housing Program. The Enterprise Housing Program is designed to incent the private and non-profit sectors to produce housing that is affordable.

 

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Third quarter 2019 housing market update: Stronger sales driven by affordable product and supply reduction

City of Calgary, October 22, 2019 – Third-quarter activity continues to show signs of improvement. Similar to last quarter, much of the improvement in the market has been driven by supply adjustments.


However, the housing market has also benefited from stronger year-over-year gains in sales activity this quarter. Price declines have likely contributed to some of the demand growth. Also, sales growth has been driven by product priced under $500,000.


“This is a market with divergent trends. The lower end of the market is recording improving sales and easing supply. This is supporting more stability in prices. However, at the higher end of the market we continue to see slower sales and rising supply,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.


“Persistent struggles in the overall economy have caused a shift in salary expectations, along with adjustments in housing demand. Improvements in the lower end of the market will eventually impact higher price ranges, but we are still in a buyers’ market. We are facing enough economic risk that it will prolong the time it takes to move the entire market to more stable conditions.”


Supply continues to adjust in the resale market, mostly due to reductions in new listings. Easing starts and lower vacancy rates are also helping reduce overall supply levels. These supply adjustments will help support more stability in prices, but often move at a slower pace compared to supply reductions driven by demand growth.


Nonetheless, the easing supply compared to sales is helping push the market toward more balanced conditions and reducing the level of price declines. Prices continue to remain nearly three per cent lower than last year’s levels, but the pace of decline is easing, and third-quarter prices remained relatively stable compared to second-quarter figures. While we are far from price recovery, pressure on prices should ease if these adjustments continue.


Three things to know about the 2019 third-quarter market update:
• Sales activity improved by 6.75 per cent compared to last year, driven by gains in the under-$500,000 segment.
• On average, inventories declined by nearly 14 per cent compared to last year.
• The third-quarter benchmark price was $425,533. This is a decline of 2.74 per cent year-over-year, but a 0.31 per cent increase quarter-over-quarter.


For more information, please refer to CREB®‘s Q3 2019 Calgary & Region Quarterly Update Report, available here.


https://www.creblink.com/-/media/Public/CREBcom/Housing_Statistics/Q32019ForecastReport.pdf?la=en&fbclid=IwAR19sBUaSUwiIYkRlAmSLtJqNzrfXQi4936c42Oztj-_7hjrR3UGZE1XG6k

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In fact, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says we’re good for the next two years.

 

Mario Toneguzzi takes a look at the latest report out this morning.

 

In it, the CMHC says the average price in the Calgary area will rise from $460,584 in 2014 to $469,000 in 2015 and to $479,000 in 2016.


But sales are expected to fall from 33,615 in 2014 to 32,500 this year and rise to 32,700 in 2016.

CMHC expects housing starts in the Calgary region to drop from 17,131 in 2014 to 13,600 in 2015 and to 12,100 in 2016.

 

The agency predicts similar trends for the province.

For Alberta, the agency forecasts housing starts will decline from 40,590 last year to 36,000 this year and 34,500 in 2016.

 

MLS sales for the province are expected to dip from 71,773 in 2014 to 71,100 in 2015 and then rise slightly to 71,600 in 2016.

 

Average prices are expected to rise in Alberta from $400,590 in 2014 to $407,100 in 2015 and $415,000 in 2016.

 

Original Article from the Calgary Herald February 6, 2015 http://calgaryherald.com/storyline/forget-what-youve-been-hearing-cmhc-is-still-forecasting-home-prices-will-rise-in-calgary

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Despite an economic pummelling from faltering oil prices that’ll cool the city’s housing market, real estate analysts are predicting some modest growth in the sector.

 

While numbers in the city’s housing industry will fall from record-setting figures of 2014, prices should increase by 1.58% this year, the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) said Wednesday. But sales are predicted to fall by 4% in 2015 compared to an extraordinarily hot 2014, said CREB Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who added that modest price increase is more hold-the line than anything.

 

“In fact, that’s actually level to the end of last year,” she said. There’s no denying the role of tumble in the price of oil that’s dropped by more than 50% since last June, said Lurie. “The housing risks lie mainly with employment levels and net migration, both of which can be more severely impacted by a prolonged period of weakness in the energy sector,” said Lurie, adding if energy prices falter longer, housing forecasts could change. “Those estimates on employment might reverse, it could hit harder.”

 

Last year, total housing starts were up in Calgary by 36.7% over 2013, said the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). But the agency has predicted a 16.7% decrease in that activity this year.  Lurie said the market shouldn’t be impacted as badly as it was in the last recession because the broader economic fundamentals are more sound now.

 

“It’s not the losses we saw in 2009,” she said.  Meanwhile, Royal LePage also said falling oil prices will substantially cool a red hot housing market that should still see gains in 2015. Housing prices should increase by 2.4% this year, due largely to a limited supply facing buyers, said broker Ted Zaharko, owner of Royal LePage Foothills.

 

“While we expect price rises may moderate in 2015, the upward trend we’ve seen over the past few years is unlikely to reverse without a meaningful increase in inventory,” said Zaharko.

 

He called the impact of tumbling oil prices “worrying” that should have some immediate effect, but said their ultimate impact might not be dramatic.  “There would need to be prolonged low oil prices for any spillover into the housing market to be significant,” said Zaharko.

 

Some economic analysts are predicting a lengthy swoon for oil prices that could lead to a prolonged economic downturn, particularly in Alberta and the West. On Tuesday, the Conference Board of Canada predicted Alberta will fall into recession this year. But Premier Jim Prentice said that while the province is taking a major hit, its economy shouldn’t suffer to that extent.

 

Original article by Bill Kaufmann, Calgary Sun

bill.kaufmann@sunmedia.ca

on Twitter: @SUNBillKaufmann

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Pressure on supply of homes for sale

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald

 

CALGARY - Although additional resale housing inventory is expected to hit the Calgary market in the spring, a new real estate report says it will be absorbed by strong consumer demand.

The report by Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, released Tuesday, said the outlook for Calgary’s real estate market is positive based on key economic indicators and demand is being “driven by low interest rates, tight rental and resale real estate markets and strong economic fundamentals.”

 

Ross McCredie, president and chief executive of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said Calgary’s marketplace demand is due to a number of factors including high incomes and strong net migration to the city.

 

“People feel pretty confident more than any other market in Canada in terms of the future of it,” he said. “The new product that’s out there, the existing product and if you look at all of the data that supports it, it’s not as if you have an over-supply of product . . . Calgary is not that big of a market compared to say Toronto or even Vancouver. You do have a significant demand out there. You’ve got a lot of people looking for high quality real estate. When people make money they typically try to buy real estate. That hasn’t changed.

 

“If you look at the Calgary market, probably more than any market you’ve got more pressure on supply than any market in Canada.”

 

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, month to date from March 1-17, there have been 1,264 MLS sales in the city, up 13.26 per cent from the same period last year. But new listings of 1,782 are down by 1.44 per cent and active listings of 3,126 are off by 20.17 per cent.

The median price has jumped by 9.0 per cent to $433,000 while the average sale price has risen by 6.25 per cent to $482,307. And the average days on the market to sell a home has dropped to 27 from 35 last year.

 

“Low inventory and high demand from buyers have resulted in bidding wars, multiple offers and an increase in sales above asking prices for single-family homes both in the city and its surrounding areas. Low vacancy rates are also encouraging first-time buyers into the market, driving specific demand for homes in the $300,000 to $700,000 range with the effect trickling up to homes at higher price points,” said Sotheby’s Housing & Economic Outlook report.

 

“In recent years, Calgary has stood out as a pillar of strength among Canada’s major urban centres, bolstered by continued economic growth and record-breaking real estate market performance. This resilience helped the city’s housing market recover from the effects of widespread flooding that took place in June and July 2013, described by the provincial government as the worst in Alberta’s history.”

 

It said Alberta in the year ahead is expected to lead the country in total capital investment growth driven largely by oil and gas extraction and pipelines.

The report said anticipated regulatory approval of any one of the many proposed pipeline projects will also contribute positively to the momentum of the city’s economic performance in 2014.

 

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

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9.6% annual hike for repeat home sales to record level

By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald

 

CALGARY - Calgary’s housing market continues to shine compared with the rest of the country as local residental real estate prices showed the highest growth rate in Canada in February, according to a report released Wednesday on repeat home sales.

 

Calgary prices rose by 9.6 per cent year-over-year and by 1.1 per cent month-over-month - both the best in the country and to an all-time high for the city, said the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index.

 

Nationally, of 11 centres surveyed, prices were up 5.0 per cent from last year and by 0.3 per cent from January.

 

The index is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation.

 

The trend in price increases in Calgary does not appear to be changing in March. According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, so far this month from March 1-11, the average MLS sale price in the city is up 5.28 per cent from the same time a year ago to $480,345 while the median price has increased by 7.25 per cent to $429,000. CREB stats indicate there have been 796 MLS sales so far this month, up 10.71 per cent from last year but new listings are down 4.05 per cent to 1,114 and active listings are off by 18.80 per cent to 3,049.

 

The Teranet-National Bank report said that for the second month in a row, prices for Canada as a whole rose to an all-time high, though new records were set in only two of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed - Vancouver (for a fourth straight month) and Calgary (for the first time since September 2007).

 

The gain from a year earlier was well above the cross-country average in two of the 11 markets, Calgary and Vancouver (7.7 per cent). It was slightly above the average in Toronto (6.1 per cent) and Edmonton (5.3 per cent), equal to the average in Hamilton (5.0 per cent) and below it in Winnipeg (3.5 per cent) and Montreal (1.9 per cent).

 

In Halifax (4.7 per cent) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.6 per cent), prices were down from a year earlier for a second consecutive month. In Victoria (3.4 per cent), home prices have been down from a year earlier for 12 months now. Quebec City posted its first 12 month deflation in 15 years (2.0 per cent). It is the first time since October 2009 that there is price deflation in at least four of the regions covered, said the report.

 

“In February the east-west dichotomy became more pronounced than ever,” it said.

Home prices were up from the month before in all five markets of Western Canada - Calgary, Vancouver and Victoria (0.9 per cent), Edmonton (0.6 per cent) and Winnipeg (0.5 per cent). The rise in Victoria ended a run of four consecutive monthly declines. For Vancouver it was the 10th consecutive monthly increase. In the six markets of central and eastern Canada, the only monthly rise was in Montreal (0.7 per cent), the second advance after six months of flat or declining prices. Prices were down 0.1 per cent in Toronto, making February the fourth month without a gain in the last six. For Ottawa-Gatineau (0.8 per cent) it was the sixth decline in a row, for Quebec City (1.7 per cent) the sixth in seven months. For Halifax (1.7 per cent) it was the third decline in a row, said the report.

 

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

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BMO report says Canadians willing to pay more to get what they want

 By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald March 5, 201

CALGARY - Prospective Canadian homebuyers are more willing to enter into a bidding war this year for properties they want to purchase, says a new report released Wednesday by BMO.

 

And Calgary’s hot housing market is proving to be a good example of that as nearly 20 per cent of MLS residential sales in the city in February were for above list price.

 

The BMO Home Buying Report said 34 per cent of Canadians are willing to enter a bidding war when it’s time to buy a home, an increase of six points, or 21 per cent, from a year ago.

 

The report, conducted by Pollara, said that in major city centres, the appetite for competitive bids is the highest in Toronto and Vancouver (44 per cent and 41 per cent respectively). In Calgary, it is 38 per cent and in Alberta, it is 30 per cent.

 

“While many suspect bidding wars are triggered by sellers who deliberately price their homes below market, the report shows that just 15 per cent of owners have that motivation, with those on the Prairies and in Toronto the most likely to pursue this strategy - but even then the numbers are modest at 24 per cent and 22 per cent respectively,” said BMO, which says average home prices across Canada continue to rise, gaining momentum in the past year, with the average transaction price up nearly 10 per cent year-over-year in January. The average home sale price in Canada is currently just over $400,000.

“Calgary’s market continues to see the strongest fundamentals; Vancouver has rebounded from a soft patch; while Toronto’s market remains relatively balanced overall, though the condo market is more amply supplied,” said Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, in a statement. “Overall, sales are expected to hold relatively steady in the year ahead, with price growth in the low single-digit range, below the rate of income growth.”

 

Laura Parsons, mortgage expert with BMO Bank of Montreal, said the competition for real estate in Canada, particularly in hotter markets, can be fierce and turn into an emotional frenzy.

“A shortage of inventory is driving a lot of it,” said Parson of the Calgary market. “It’s such an emotional thing. When you see it, you get it. I remember the days when there were lineups of people behind each other. The minute you see that your heart starts to race and you want to not lose.

“Lots of people are prepared. They know what their high is . . . Calgary has the biggest income so we’re willing to spend more if we have to and hopefully we’ve been conservative before we go in and we know we have that room to bid higher.”

 

Parsons said many people don’t understand that they can renovate a home and build it into the purchase price.

 

For some people, she said, there’s a need to move before spring and they’re feeling the pressure.

Data released Monday by the Calgary Real Estate Board indicates all-time records, for any month, were set in February in the average city sale price ($482,530) and the median city price ($424,900) as well as in the single-family sale price ($550,312) and the single-family median price ($480,000).

 

“Calgary has been in a statistical sellers’ market since February 2013,” said Robyn Moser, a realtor with CIR Realty. “As time has passed, the sellers’ market has become increasingly aggressive. This has caused buyers to see lower and lower levels of inventory, placed into competing offers and homes selling in days if not hours. This cause is speculated to be the lack of available new home inventory due to Calgary sewer lines that are needing to be upgraded. This has placed metro Calgary real estate values into statistical unsustainable levels until the sewer line upgrade is complete.”

 

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald

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New price tool shows year-over-year growth
 
Calgary, February 6, 2012 – The year-over-year value of homes in Calgary increased in January 2012 by 2.7 per cent, according to a new price measurement tool vetted by academia and financial industry experts, including the Bank of Canada.
 
The new MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was introduced today by the Canadian Real Estate Association in partnership with Canada’s five largest real estate boards – Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Toronto and Montreal.
 
The new tool measures how typical properties are valued in the market rather than relying on average and median prices. In January, for example, the average price declined year-over-year, but only because more homes were sold in the lower-price ranges compared to the previous year, when more luxury home sales occurred. 
   
“By combining information from the MLS® HPI with their own knowledge, experience and skills, REALTORS® can help their clients approach one of life’s most important decisions – that of buying or selling a home – with greater confidence,” says Bob Jablonski, president of CREB®.
 
The MLS® HPI is calculated using a sophisticated statistical model that estimates home prices based on their quantitative and qualitative features that are typical to that neighborhood, such as square footage, number of rooms above the basement level, number of bathrooms and half-bathrooms, whether the property has a fireplace and/or finished basement, lot size or the age of the property, to name a few. 
 
“The MLS® HPI is the best tool to determine true price trends in the market,” says Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® chief economist. “The commonly used average and median prices can be misleading as they are easily affected by the composition of what is sold.”
 
For buyers and sellers, the MLS® HPI determines what a typical home is valued at in their neighborhood, as well as how this compares to other neighborhoods. In addition, it provides a true price trend for their community.
 

“We are excited to be able to offer the purest, most accurate housing data that is currently available,” Jablonski says. “The MLS® HPI  can be used to not only determine pricing trends, but also to gain insight into the typical home in a specific market segment, adding value to the existing tools REALTORS® can use to value homes for both buyers and sellers.”

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Calgary, January 3, 2012
 

According to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board), Calgary residential sales in 2011 increased eight per cent over last year, with 18,568 sales for 2011 compared to

17,267 in 2010.

 

Recovering from tepid sales activity in the first half of 2011, early improvements in employment and migration resulted in a pickup in housing demand in the second half of the year. By the end of June 2011, year-to-date sales activity had only increased by two per cent compared to the second half of the year, where residential sales improved by 15 per cent.
 
“While sales activity in 2011 remained below the long run average by 17 per cent, monthly figures point towards the trend of this gap narrowing,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®.
 

2011 single family sales totaled 13,186, a nine per cent increase over last year. While sales increased, listings remained low, with an annual total of 24,245, six per cent lower than 2010 levels. The decline in listings relative to sales pushed down inventory levels to 2,761, resulting in four months of supply.

Meanwhile, the condominium market recorded declining sales for nearly half of the year, but favorable pricing and improved economic conditions pushed sales up by double digit rates for the second half of

the year. 2011 condo sales totaled 5,382, a 4 per cent increase over the previous year. The rise in sales was complemented by an annual 12 per cent decline in listings. This helped to tighten the condominium market, causing inventories to decline to 1,287 and months of supply to remain just above four months.
 
“The demand recovery in the condominium market lagged the single family market, as price adjustments in both the single family and condominium markets resulted in more selection for consumers,”
 

Stante says. “For the first time in several years, consumers had additional selection of single family homes at a lower price range, which directly competed with the condominium market.”

 
Single family average price in 2011 reached $466,402, a one per cent increase over last year. While there have been some strong monthly increases, primarily due to sales in the upper end skewing the prices, overall prices have remained fairly stable. Meanwhile, the year-end median price of 405,000 remains at levels similar to 2010.
 
Condominium prices have remained persistently low in 2011, while some of the monthly figures have been boosted by high end penthouse sales. By the end of 2011, the average price of $287,172 remained one per cent lower than the previous year.
 

“Throughout 2011, elevated levels of inventories have limited price growth as consumers benefitted from sufficient supply of housing to choose from; however, as these inventories drop to levels more

consistent with a balanced market, we can expect some moderate price growth moving forward,” Stante concludes.

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I have uploaded the Housing Market OutlookCalgary 2012 Provided by CMHC to the REPORTS section of my website. It is in PDF format and available for download.
 

This Outlook report for Calgary is published semi-annually and offers forecasts and analyses of trends in the new, resale and rental housing markets. For the new home market, housing starts and price changes are examined in detail, while the resale section presents sales activity, average prices, and listings. Analysis of the rental market focuses on vacancy rates, average rents and related forecasts. An overview and forecast of key economic indicators is also detailed, along with other factors affecting the local economy and housing market.

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By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald December 7, 2011
 
 
Fuelled by low interest rates and job security, demand for residential real estate in Calgary is on the upswing, says the Re/Max Housing Market Outlook 2012 report published Tuesday. And the real estate firm says Calgary will be a Canadian leader next year in the annual growth rate for MLS sales.
 
By year-end 2011, 22,500 homes are expected to change hands, an eight per cent increase over the 20,801 sales reported in 2010, it said. And the average price in Calgary is forecast to appreciate as well, rising a "modest" one per cent to $405,000 in 2011, up from $401,186 one year ago.
 
The report forecasts the average MLS sale price will jump by three per cent in 2012 to $417,000, while sales will rise by five per cent to 23,600 units.
 
Lowell Martens, of Re/ Max Real Estate (Mountain View) in Calgary, said any hesitation on the part of some buyers in the city is more than likely a direct reflection of the uncertainty in the European economic situation. He said commercial realestate construction taking place in Calgary "tells us the long-term feeling out there is very positive for Calgary."
 

"We have a very stable market over the next little while. We don't anticipate any big upswings, but at the same time we don't anticipate any big downswings either. It's going to be very stable," he said.

Buyers in the city are cautiously optimistic after more than two years of recession, making their moves while interest rates are at historic lows and housing values are affordable, said the report.
 
"Single-family homes remain most popular with purchasers, representing close to 60 per cent of total residential sales. Demand is greatest for entry-level product, priced between $350,000 and $450,000," it said. "Con-dominium apartments and town houses have also experienced solid momentum in recent months, with the lion's share of activity occurring from $200,000 to $300,000. Luxury home sales - priced over $1 million - have been particularly brisk, up approximately 25 per cent over 2010 levels."
 
While global concerns still loom, the market appears to be gaining some traction moving into the new year, said the report. Re/Max said Canadian residential realestate defied conventiona l logic and outperformed expectations in 2011, posting another solid year of housing activity virtually across the board. The trend is expected to carry forward into 2012 as Canadians "continue to demonstrate their faith in home ownership, despite concerns over the European debt crisis and its impact on the global economy."
 
"What 2011 proves is that real estate continues to have momentum," said Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president, Re/Max of Western Canada, in a statement
.
"The economic underpinnings support ongoing demand, particularly as job creation efforts continue and unemployment rates edge down further."
 
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Stable Pricing Providing Opportunities for Buyers

 

Calgary, December 1, 2011 – According to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board), Calgary residential sales in November increased eight per cent over last year, at 17,538 after the first 11 months of the year. 

 

While sales activity tends to taper off in the winter months, so far this year Calgary area sales remain significantly stronger than levels recorded last year. Single family home sales totaled 962 for the month, an increase of eight per cent from November 2010. Meanwhile, year-to-date sales totaled 12,464, a 10 per cent increase over last year. Over the long term, however, sales remained a tepid 17 per cent below the 10 year average. 

 

“Despite any global economic cautions, consumers are actively seeking well priced listings in the market, a reflection of their positive long term outlook for the city,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®. “Following two years of employment losses, the current growth in jobs is translating into improvements in the housing sector and a more optimistic consumer.”

 

November listings have edged down over last year’s levels, decreasing by two per cent. Lower listings combined with the increase in sales helped reduce the months of inventory to less than four months. 

 

The year-to-date average and median price of single family homes were a respective $467,140 and $406,500. Overall, prices remain relatively flat compared to last year. 

 

“This stable pricing provides an opportunity for buyers in our market. The addition of historically low interest rates, combined with a good selection of inventory, makes it a trifecta,” Stante says. “With positive wage growth in the wind, this is a signal, and a reminder, that this market opportunity will not remain forever.”

 

Condominium sales for the first 11 months of the year totaled 5,074, a five per cent rise over the same period last year. Inventory levels declined to 1,676 units, helping push down the months of supply. 

 

“The rise in condominium sales can be attributed to the confidence in the market, and is typical of this phase of a normal market recovery,” says Stante.

 

Condominium year-to-date average and median prices in 2011 were $287,545 and $261,500, respectively, a decline over the first 11 months of 2010, mostly due to increased sales in units priced under $200,000. 

 

“Calgary continues to record impressive employment growth and long term fundamentals remain strong,” Stante concludes. “The strength in our economy, combined with affordability levels that outperform most major centers, will continue to attract migrants to the city and spur further growth in our Calgary housing market.”

 

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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Housing Market Outlook 
 Date Released: Fourth Quarter 2011

Alberta Overview
Alberta’s housing starts are forecast to increase by 15.3 per cent to 29,200 units in 2012, following a 6.5 per cent decrease in 2011 to 25,325 units.
  
 These robust gains are a result of a number of factors. Firstly, the economy is projected to show relatively strong growth over the forecast period. In 2011, real gross domestic product is expected to rise by 3.1 per cent, followed by 3.5 per cent in 2012. Note, however, a pullback in oil prices during the summer, along with various wildfires, briefly slowed economic conditions, but these effects have dissipated.
  
 Secondly, employment growth is projected at 3.4 per cent in 2011, lowering the unemployment rate from 6.5 per cent to 5.6 per cent. By 2012, the unemployment rate is expected to be lowered to 5.1 per cent. As a result, this will put upward pressure on Alberta’s housing sector.

 

Finally, the demographic outlook for Alberta is positive. With an improving economy generating jobs, it is expected more migrants will choose Alberta as their home. Last year was a 15-year low for migration to Alberta.

 

Moving forward, expect significant growth in migration this year with further gains in 2012. These gains are also expected to put upward pressure on the demand for housing within the province.

 

In Detail

 

 
Single Starts: Single-detached starts are projected to decline about ten per cent in 2011, as builders mitigate the risk of rising inventories. Over the balance of the forecast period, demand for single-detached homes will improve with a growing economy and job creation. In 2012, single-detached starts are expected to rise by over 15 per cent to 18,400 units. The number of single-detached units under construction in August was at approximately half the level reported five years ago. However, with the inventory of complete and unabsorbed units up from the previous year, builders have been cautious about expanding production.

 

  
Multiple Starts: More affordable condominium projects are now competing with the resale market and enticing some renters to move into new condominium units. After a slow start to this year, the pace of multi-family starts has picked-up and is expected to edge past last year’s level of production. In 2012, demand is expected to improve with rising incomes and new household formation, raising the level of multi-family production by 14.6 per cent to 10,800 units.

 

  
Resales: The number of MLS® sales in Alberta is projected to increase by over six per cent in 2011 to 52,800 units. In 2012, MLS® sales are projected to rise to 53,900 units.

 

  
Prices:   Most of Alberta’s major urban centres remain in buyers’ market conditions as indicated by a sales-to-new listings ratio that has fluctuated around 50 per cent this year. The average resale price in 2011 is expected to rise fractionally above last year’s average, with much of the price movement attributed to compositional effects. As Alberta’s economy generates employment and attracts more migrants, demand will rise and improve market balance. The average resale price in Alberta is projected to rise by more than two per cent in 2012 to $362,700.
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First year-over-year increase in monthly condominium sales since April 2010

 

Calgary, July 4, 2011 – According to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board), residential sales surged in the month of June 2011 to 1,979 units. While this indicates a third more sales than June 2010, the year-todate increase proved a moderate 2 per cent. Strong monthly increases does not imply a housing boom, as it is important to put into perspective that sales

activity remains below long term averages. While the single family market has shown signs of improvement throughout the first half of this year, this is the first time since April 2010 that condominium sales have recorded a year-over year increase.

 

“Improved housing demand is being fueled by a younger demographic and, with the affordability of homes in Calgary, we are continuing to see young Calgarians pursue ownership over rentals,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®.

 

“Historically, Calgary’s average family income has been higher than the national average and a younger more mobile demographic has been attracted to good paying professional jobs in Calgary. As the economy continues to build momentum, we expect this same trend will support a balanced and healthy

housing market in the second half of 2011 and into 2012.”

 

With 581 sales for the month of June 2011, the condominium market improved by 31 per cent over June of 2010, however year-to-date figures show a 5 per cent decrease over the same period last year.

 

“Condo sales bounced back this month, and we now have less than four months of supply on the market. Stronger condo sales, combined with a decline in inventory, will lend more balance to this market in the months to come,” says Stante.

 

After the first half of the year, average prices of condominiums are still slightly lower than levels recorded last year, as more buyers bought condominiums under $200,000 in 2011 compared to 2010 for the same period.
 

“Buyers in this market expect value and many are taking advantage of some affordable buys in both the single family and condo markets. It highlights using a skilled REALTOR® to properly price your home for your unique market area,” says Stante.

 

The single family market recorded 1,398 sales in the month of June 2011. This is an increase of 32 per cent when compared to June 2010 when 1,059 single family homes sold in the city of Calgary. With a total of 7,231 sales after the first half of the year, year-to-date single family sales are 6 per cent higher than last year.

 

“While new listings are still lower than levels recorded last year, the rate of decline has eased. With the market shifting to more balanced conditions in recent months, sellers are feeling more confident to list their home. Overall our absorption rate has remained relatively stable, staving off any significant rise in

prices,” says Stante.

 

Year-to-date average price of a single family home in Calgary is $472,330, while the median price is $410,000, virtually unchanged over levels recorded in the previous year. The distribution of sales by price range has not shown any significant shift compared to last year, pointing to continued stability in the market.
 

“After the first half of the year, it appears the recovery in the housing market is starting to find its footing.

This gradual leveling has been fueled by growth in employment, and in particular growth in full time jobs. Improved job prospects, combined with an increase in the number of people moving to Calgary, will give lift to our housing market for the remainder of this year and into the

next,” says Stante.

 

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Higher priced homes selling faster as listings trend down
 

According to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board), City of Calgary year-to-date sales declined by 4 per cent compared to the first four months of 2010. The decline was offset by a 14 per cent drop in listings recorded over the same period, resulting in lower inventory levels, and a moderate growth in average prices.

 

In April 2011, single family home sales were 1,217, while 2,299 listings came to market, a decline of 10 per cent over April 2010 and 25 per cent, respectively. Inventory levels rose slightly over March 2011

levels, but remained well below inventories recorded in April 2010, and close to the long term average, indicating the market continues to show balanced conditions.
 
“While our spring market has been a little slow to get started, we are seeing our inventory levels return to healthy levels,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®. “This trend, combined with an improving job market, will help warm up Calgary’s housing market in the coming months.”
 
Along with a decline in inventory, Stante points out that homes in the higher-end of the market are selling faster, with average days on market trending down, and below the 5-year average.
 
“We are seeing improvements in the sale of homes in the higher price points. Homes above $700,000 are selling within an average of 41 days. This is consistent with pre-recession levels,” says Stante.
 
To view the full report and current Calgary market stats, click here.
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Calgary, February 1, 2011
 

– Single family home sales in the City of Calgary edged upwards month-over-month and showed the first yearover-year increase since April  2010, according to figures released today by CREB® (Calgary Real Estate Board).

 

The number of single family home sales in the month of January 2011 were 787, compared with December 2010, when sales were 734— an increase of about 7 per cent. The number of condominium sales for the month of January 2011 was 297. This was down from the 320 condominium transactions recorded in December 2010.
 
Year-over-year, the number of single family homes sold in January 2011 in the city of Calgary increased by just over 3 per cent. In January 2010, single family home sales totaled 762. Condominium sales saw a decrease of 21 per cent from the same time a year ago. In January 2010, condominium sales were 376.
 
“More affordable housing will continue to attract homebuyers to the inner-city, particularly as employment in the city of Calgary continues to improve,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®. “Single family homes in the city are currently driving this gradual recovery, and we are seeing an uptick in the sale of homes below the $350,000 price point. This may suggest more first time homebuyers are entering the market, providing the fuel needed for a sustained housing recovery.”
 
The average price of a single family home in the city of Calgary in January 2011 was $454,287, showing a 3 per cent increase from December 2010, when the average price was $441,341, and a 3 per cent increase from January 2010, when the average price was $441,217. The average price of a condominium in the city of Calgary in January 2011 was $287,954, showing a 2 per cent increase from December 2010, when the average price was $282,768 and a 2 per cent increase over last year, when the average price was $282,639.
 
The median price of a single family home in the city of Calgary for January 2011 was $390,000, showing a slight increase from December 2010 when the median price was $389,000. This was a 2 per cent decrease from January 2010, when the median price was $398,000.
 
The median price of a condominium in January 2011 was $255,000, showing a 1 per cent decrease from December 2010, when the median price was $258,500, and a 4 per cent decrease from January 2010, when it was $265,000.
 
“The recovery in 2011 will be incremental and gradual. Nonetheless, at the moment Calgary is offering buyers a great deal of affordability, low interest rates and a large selection of inventory,” says Stante. “Overall the first quarter of 2011 will show modest improvements in sales which will lay the foundation for the return to a more balanced market,” he adds.
 

Single family listings in the city of Calgary added for the month of January 2011 totaled 1958, an increase of 169 per cent from December 2010 when 728 new listings were added, and showing an increase of 7 per cent from January 2010, when 1822 new listings came to the market.

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Well, we finally have some details and insight for the 2011 housing market, and it's about to get tougher for new home owners, and even those currently in the market.

There have been significant announcements this week for everyone interesting in buying or selling a home.  Timing is everything, and it appears that once again, there will be some significant changes that you need to be aware of. 

Considering the forecast for the Calgary Housing market to start increasing in pricing, and the tighter mortgage rules that will be coming into force in 60 days, now might be a vital window for home owners that are currently considering a move.

It is especially urgent for homeowners who are currently wishing to sell their current homes and lock in a new mortgage rate on a newly purchased home.  With only 60 days to finalize before the new rates come into effect, it will be a challenge to get a home on the market and sold in time to take advantage of the current status.  The up side is that over the next two months, the market may get very fluid with those who need to take advantage of the current mortgage rules.

I received the following details from one of my mortgage specialists advising that there will be some major changes in how mortgages are approved. This is a significant tightening for those of you who are currently considering purchasing a new home.

1.       No more 35 year amortizations

 

As of March 18, 2011 all insured deals will be allowed a 30 year amortization. Any fully signed contracts whether it be a purchase or refinance committed to by CMHC on or before March 18 will be honoured over 35 years.  You cannot have an increase in price after this date - if you do, you will be subject to the 30 year amortization.

2.       Refinancing has been scaled back to 85%.

 

As of March 18th,  home owners will have access to 85% of the value of a home instead of the current 90%. This will affect  you as a  home buyer when you take equity out of your home for a down payment.  In this case, you won’t be able to get as much funding up front and your monthly  payments will be higher.

Current and potential buyers please note that the magic date is March 18th, 2011.

On a $450,000 purchase with 5% down, this would save you $200.00 per month in mortgage payments and your affordability increases by 3%.

For those who are considering a home purchase requiring an insured mortgage (less than 20% down payment), you will want to complete pre-approval and possession of home prior to March 18 2011.

If you are currently sitting on the fence as to whether or not to make your move it is important to understand that buying today will save you money in the long run. After March 18th, this window will be closed.

If you are currently considering a home purchase and would like to speak to a mortgage specialist, I have excellent resources who are very talented in obtaining financing.  Please feel free to call me at 403-399-0809 and I will put you in touch with someone who can assist you according to your current circumstances.

For further information on these changes, and the background associated, here are a few links you can visit:

The Harper Government Takes Prudent Action to Support the Long-Term Stability of Canada’s Housing Market

Backgrounder: Supporting the long-term stability of Canada’s housing market

CALGARY HERALD ARTICLE: FeDERAL GOVERNMENT TIGHTENS MORTGAGE RULES AGAIN

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The Calgary Real Estate Board released is annual forecast on Tuesday, advising that there will be a recovery in the market this year with improved sales compared with 2010.

The board is predicting that Calgary's housing inventory levels are expected to stabilize, which will result in a return to a more balanced and sustainable housing market.

It forecasts single-family home sales to increase by 19.9 per cent this year to 14,500 transactions  and the average MLS sale price is predicted to rise 4.1 per cent to $480,000.

The board also predicted that condominium sales will rise by 15.8 per cent to 6000 transactions with the average sale price increasing by 1.8 per cent to $295,900.

In the towns outside of Calgary market, the board is forecasting a 13.5 per cent increase to 4,000 with the average price increasing by 2.6 per cent to $368,500.

Sano Stante, president of the real estate board, said that his forecast wouldn't change in light of the federal government's announcement to toughen up mortgage lending practices.

"We are expecting in-migration into Calgary.  If we see the job growth that we expect to happen in Calgary then the in-migration should drive the sales."

The boards report states that the key to market recovery in 2011 will be permanent job creation sufficient to stimulate in-migration. Recovery in the first half of the year will be more modest, picking up pace in the second half. Recovery of sales will be from single family homes close to the downtown core, and by condos and single family homes in the outlying areas.

" 2011 will offer buyers unprecedented affordability, low interest rates and a large selection of inventory."

The CMHC, is predicting increased sales, with residential properties in the sold in the Calgary area to increase by 2.0 per cent this year to 20,700 units, with an increase in the average sale price.

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Housing sales in December declined from November, and the median house price has dropped 3% in comparison to 2009. Following are excerpts from the most current news release from the Calgary Real Estate Board.
 
Home and condo sales in Calgary and area remained relatively unchanged in December 2010, indicating that a full-fledged recovery in the housing market has yet to take hold, according to
fi gures released today by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®).
 

 

The number of single family home sales in the month of December 2010 were 734, compared with

November 2010, when sales were 891—a decline of about 18 per cent. The number of condominium sales for the month of December 2010 was 320. This was up from the 310 condominium transactions recorded in November 2010.

 
Undoubtedly housing markets in Alberta and Calgary underperformed in 2010, as sales recoveries did not materialize as forecasted. In many ways, re-sales in 2010 showed a repeat of 2008, with a short lived resurgence in the  fi rst few months, when confi dence returned to the market,” says Diane Scott, president of CREB®.
 

 

“Employment and net-migration have been slower to pick up here in Calgary—and these are key drivers of our housing market. The good news is we arenow seeing marked improvements in investment and employment in the energy sector. We believe these green shoots in our economy, supported by improved affordability and low interest rates, will eventually translate into a gradual recovery of our housing market as we move into 2011,” adds Scott.

 

“Supply outstripped demand in the second half of 2010, establishing conditions for a buyers’ market. Overall we did see significant improvements in affordability in the Calgary market in 2010—and I think the message to prospective buyers is that this is a great time to buy if you’re looking for good selection, specific locations and price points. The median price did indeed decline in 2010, signaling a year-over-year price correction of about 2 per cent for single-family homes, just over 4 per cent for condos and 6 per cent for the outlying towns,” adds Scott.

 

Single family listings in the city of Calgary added for the month of December 2010 totaled 744, a decrease of 44 per cent from November 2010 when 1,318 new listings were added, and showing a decrease of 8 per cent from December 2009, when 806 new listings came to the market.

Condominium new listings in the city of Calgary added for December 2010 were 369, down 42 per cent from November 2010, when the MLS® saw 632 condo listings coming to the market. This is a decrease of 17 per cent from December 2009, when new condominium listings added were 444.
 
To read the entire report and see the latest statistics, visit http://www.creb.com/public/documents/statistics/2010/package/res-stats-2010%20December.pdf
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The Calgary Herald today released a economic forecast provided by Scotiabank.  I have posted the information below, with a link back to the original article at the Calgary Herald website.
Alberta will lead the country in economic growth in 2011, building on a resource-led rebound this year, a new report suggests.

In its latest forecast released Wednesday, Scotiabank expects Alberta's economy to expand 3.5 per cent, the most growth among the provinces. The province is expected to post three per cent growth this year.

"Resource-related activity is ramping up alongside strong emerging-market demand for key industrial products, which along with a weaker U.S. dollar, is boosting commodity prices," said Scotia Economics economist Alex Koustas in a release.

The report also noted that Alberta's job market has been slow to catch up to national gains, but expects "substantial" improvements in 2011.

The housing market posted strong rebound in starts, with potential for steady gains as in-migration return to growth, it noted.

Housing starts have recovered sharply this year after steep declines in 2008-09. "Net flow turned positive in the first half of 2010, a trend that should continue as job prospects improve, supporting the outlook for retail and housing activity," Scotiabank said.

The pace of economic growth is more cautious than other recent forecasts, which also show the province to return to the head of the pack next year. RBC Economics pegs Alberta's economy to grow 4.3 per cent next year.

Rising prices for commodities such as oil and metals will play a role in bolstering certain parts of the country, the report said.

 
Read more:

 

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Secondary Suites Grant Program:

Getting Started

What is the Grant Program?

The Secondary Suite Grant Program offers a grant of up to $25,000 to cover up to 70 % of the costs of developing or upgrading a legal secondary suite. It was launched in April 2009 and will run until December 2012.

How can I apply?

·         Check out your eligibility by answering the questions below.

·         Grant Program Brochure: download & read.

·         Grant Application Form: download, complete, sign and return.

·         Grant Agreement: download, complete, sign and return.

·         Questions? Call Jacquie Mercier Mc-Murrer on 403-268-5406.

If you answer YES to these questions then you are eligible to apply for the Grant Program…

·         Is your property within a land-use district that allows a secondary suite?
Visit calgary.ca/myproperty to find out what your land-use district is.
Visit calgary.ca/secondarysuites to find out if your land-use district allows secondary suites.

·         Is your property a single detached home?
(i.e. You don't share any walls with a neighbour)

·         Are you the registered property owner?

·         Do you live in the primary home?

·         Are you prepared to rent out your suite at no more than the maximum rent for 5 years?

·         Are you prepared to accept all the terms of the Grant Agreement?

What do I have to agree to?

·         You must contribute a minimum of 30% of the costs of developing or upgrading your suite.

·         The rent you charge must be no more than the average market rent for a similar property in Calgary. This is currently $855 (including utilities). This information is updated each year in the Calgary Mortgage and Housing Corporation rental review - www.cmhc.ca.

·         You must enter into the Grant Agreement and your suite must be available for rent for 5 years.

·         You must live in the home throughout the Grant Agreement term.

·         You must provide information annually to show that your suite was available for rent at no more than an average market rent.

What is a secondary suite?

A secondary suite (also known as a basement suite, mother-in-law suite or granny suite) is a self-contained living space located on the same property as a detached house. It has a separate entrance, cooking, sleeping and bathing facilities. For more information, go to calgary.ca/secondarysuites.

Is a secondary suite a good idea for me?

Developing or upgrading a secondary suite may take some time to complete and require a significant financial investment by you. You should gather as much information as possible before making your decision about whether to move ahead. Download more information from the right hand side of this page that can help you.
 
A secondary suite works well for some tenants while providing welcome additional income for landlords. Tenants often enjoy living in a residential neighbourhood with a backyard, access to laundry, close to schools and parks and they may get along well with you as their landlord. However, it does not work well for everyone.
 

You can often avoid conflicts about noise, utility costs, privacy, sharing the backyard, laundry, etc. by ensuring you have an agreement in writing, which you've discussed in advance and that both you and your tenant have signed. As a landlord you have rights and responsibilities, which you need to be aware of before you make the decision to rent out your suite. You can get more information from servicealberta.ca, landlordandtenant.org, and calapt.org.

Why is The City offering a Grant Program?

The City of Calgary is offering a Secondary Suites Grant Program as part of the Enterprise Housing Program. The Enterprise Housing Program is designed to incent the private and non-profit sectors to produce housing that is affordable.

 

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